TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$523,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$610,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked JD Gaming57c32,669$18,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,608.692,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96f…ff4bbacked Top Esports50c19,940$9,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,024.427838.5%30 W · 48 L-10.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Top Esports41c16,391$6,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,727.0755955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf56e…2d64backed JD Gaming74c16,256$12,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,013.847248.6%35 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports28c14,688$4,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,601.191,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Top Esports42c11,574$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,708.941,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Top Esports41c8,742$3,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,161.190348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4b…1928backed Top Esports72c8,508$6,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.43850%19 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked JD Gaming57c8,161$4,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.051,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked JD Gaming68c7,712$5,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,221.782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Top Esports41c6,333$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,736.351,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed JD Gaming75c5,677$4,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.7527353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c2abacked Top Esports49c5,581$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.429268.5%63 W · 29 L+13.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9dcd…7e04backed Top Esports40c5,411$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.7113752.6%72 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…2e78backed JD Gaming58c5,211$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.4811060.9%67 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Top Esports16c4,942$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,151.2732440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed JD Gaming61c4,713$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.341,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f9…895dbacked Top Esports55c4,660$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.410954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7168…4e24backed Top Esports37c4,118$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.35046%23 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked JD Gaming59c3,986$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,351.7367250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed JD Gaming50c3,903$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.721,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Top Esports40c3,866$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.6370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed JD Gaming57c3,529$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.6482352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked JD Gaming60c3,469$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.332,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6dd…edafbacked Top Esports34c3,459$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.7213165.6%86 W · 45 L+16.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Top Esports35c3,242$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.054170.7%29 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed JD Gaming43c3,188$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.59345.2%42 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Top Esports14c3,159$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.3521028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports41c3,057$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.971,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed Top Esports37c3,035$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.8724029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb37…1708backed JD Gaming64c2,732$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.014951%25 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked JD Gaming68c2,624$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.273237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Top Esports41c2,443$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.4771249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Top Esports39c2,216$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.9876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Top Esports31c2,161$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.831,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed JD Gaming8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b00…5b7ebacked JD Gaming70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Top Esports24c1,928$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.8855639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed JD Gaming59c1,804$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.6585836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports40c1,744$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.081,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed JD Gaming57c1,624$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.3518447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed JD Gaming58c1,612$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.611,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Top Esports10c1,605$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.7296057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked JD Gaming69c1,596$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.3351160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e2…5588backed JD Gaming47c1,511$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.396369.8%44 W · 19 L+11.7wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked JD Gaming20c1,453$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.5423341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Top Esports42c1,446$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.571,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed JD Gaming71c1,434$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.2616254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Top Esports32c1,392$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.714932.7%16 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked JD Gaming45c1,365$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.9526245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Top Esports46c1,251$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.13464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Top Esports48c1,250$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed JD Gaming37c1,178$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.221,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Top Esports41c1,176$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.061,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3cd…9f3ebacked Top Esports16c1,171$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.1315257.9%88 W · 64 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd91…5d82backed Top Esports40c1,166$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.956347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Top Esports43c1,062$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.5617744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed JD Gaming58c1,033$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.650647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Top Esports42c1,014$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.6164453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked JD Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102261.8%4 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick2cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Top Esports25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5df…a6b6backed Top Esports79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2104465.9%29 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed JD Gaming59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59052750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed JD Gaming26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26012850%64 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed JD Gaming58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58048448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed JD Gaming20c993.71$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7452848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked JD Gaming60c968.3$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.7823754%128 W · 109 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9587…408cbacked Top Esports43c965.8$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.5114754.4%80 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Top Esports21c952.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.61,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7a…87c7backed JD Gaming65c939.91$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.4912763%80 W · 47 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe27a…d8c4backed Top Esports60c918.18$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.747460.8%45 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf962…5032backed Top Esports54c900.94$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.2210363.1%65 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed JD Gaming59c900$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5311,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e20…c707backed JD Gaming74c896.75$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.62540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cfd…cd33backed Top Esports42c887.96$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…02f3backed Top Esports27c881.83$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.741729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e42…b2fbbacked JD Gaming27c849.96$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked JD Gaming57c833.12$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.8887844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed JD Gaming59c822.96$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.781,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed JD Gaming5c809.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed JD Gaming60c806.83$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.121749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed JD Gaming26c790$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.067327.4%20 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Top Esports42c784.89$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.2354756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f1…e639backed Top Esports64c777.42$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.935251.9%27 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6596…e809backed JD Gaming62c770.7$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.773060%18 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed JD Gaming47c737.85$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.191,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Top Esports41c728.98$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.399347.3%44 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed JD Gaming62c722.95$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9163161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Top Esports27c713.37$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.1638835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked JD Gaming29c707.07$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9725340.7%103 W · 150 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked JD Gaming61c683.62$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.0176955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Top Esports41c614.6$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.616543.1%28 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked JD Gaming61c600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36652151.8%270 W · 251 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed JD Gaming46c599.99$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27635346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a7…6f38backed Top Esports67c597.51$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.117466.2%49 W · 25 L+12.4wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked JD Gaming58c581.95$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.351,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Top Esports30c580$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.241,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Top Esports31c575.05$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.1968942.5%293 W · 396 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed JD Gaming45c556.13$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1127254.4%148 W · 124 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Top Esports41c554.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.441,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.