South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc001ef84f51e3828e09423d3d3d78e14066e2bf2bae5d4a1d101a961287fe721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 31c | 12,384$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.9 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 65c | 10,554$6,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.11 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 6,629$4,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 43c | 6,476$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Yes | 15c | 6,164$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 38c | 3,128$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.17 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 1,859$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 69c | 1,600$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 1,560$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.01 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 61c | 1,527$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.38 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 1,416$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.31 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 1,353$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 31c | 1,235$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.75 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 1,031$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 14c | 886.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 14c | 812$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 65c | 649.52$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 551.43$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 59c | 545.47$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Yes | 61c | 510.7$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 18c | 476.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 32c | 423.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ddf1backed Yes | 14c | 409.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 34c | 386.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…57c1backed Yes | 57c | 376.09$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 48c | 335.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 21c | 321.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 18c | 301.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 16c | 289.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 19c | 284.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 271$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 271$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 50c | 259.16$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 64c | 258.95$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 31c | 247.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 47c | 213.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 43c | 209.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 179.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 58c | 177$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 17c | 152.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…9fe0backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 53c | 138.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked No | 71c | 129.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 14c | 128.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 31c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 34c | 118.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…4238backed Yes | 50c | 103.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 57c | 98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 19c | 96.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…431fbacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…bc47backed Yes | 14c | 79.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 70c | 77.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 72.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 67.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…4e03backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 55c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 62c | 50.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 48c | 46.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 67c | 41.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 65c | 34.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 67c | 33.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…062cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 60c | 29.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 48c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 78c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 62c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 69c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
- Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.