TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Team Falcons to win 2-0?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked No50c11,084$5,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,557.6517452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…4f8abacked Yes51c4,422$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.81650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe70d…a72fbacked Yes52c3,216$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked No50c2,300$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00014258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f1…5ecfbacked No48c1,577$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.966642.4%28 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x223a…f30ebacked No45c1,431$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Yes50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed No52c1,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Yes50c1,198$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.7538547.5%183 W · 202 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No47c1,151$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.821,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes55c1,064$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.9669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50018351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Yes49c690.3$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.0550347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Yes50c672$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33631936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed Yes55c656.84$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.4917451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed Yes49c616.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.56654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No51c600$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes50c526$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c505.1$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4519643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b9…79a2backed No50c503$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25038649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes49c499.97$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.9941864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked No46c481.19$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.354645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes54c450.33$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No39c424.85$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7555751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Yes48c416.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.321,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked Yes49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1617550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes57c405.33$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4961449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes53c385.16$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.512432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed No45c338.71$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9225956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed Yes48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.56657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked No46c300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.226741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked No48c266.27$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5321253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Yes50c244$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12214643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…91febacked Yes49c241.04$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c227.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3666545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Yes50c214.92$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.467864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…15aebacked Yes76c208.17$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No48c208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.842846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yes61c204.17$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.162,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc1…662fbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0811257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8837754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed No47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed No51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9915854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed No52c160$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.253634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked Yes62c127.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5812860.9%78 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609942.4%42 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Yes74c110.78$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1855561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fb…9d50backed Yes50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No43c107.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1938142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes50c107.13$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.577745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Yes55c106$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.147548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.525047.6%119 W · 131 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4667555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4852950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194f…c849backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1515642.9%67 W · 89 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c12…3d4cbacked Yes54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.594761.7%29 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c87…516bbacked Yes49c91.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8415961%97 W · 62 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed No51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.87651.3%39 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Yes79c78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed Yes56c71.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3411751.3%60 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed No42c70.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5215653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9051…706fbacked Yes50c63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed Yes49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2218562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a2…1abdbacked No47c61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6714639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.612350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Yes56c58.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked No47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked No42c53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Yes76c52.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9642660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes54c51.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.493546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0221941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2292561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Yes58c44.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8315461.7%95 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed No50c41.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed Yes51c38.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf99c…3f0abacked Yes74c37.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.849161.5%56 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes49c36.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7327466.4%182 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed No43c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.131,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x089f…dddabacked Yes55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8711363.7%72 W · 41 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes50c32.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3566947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed No48c30.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6119460.3%117 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514543.4%63 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4a…8a46backed Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes65c25.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0967853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed No48c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffd…08fabacked Yes50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1114052.9%74 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Yes48c21.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2524034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc313…6645backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021051%107 W · 103 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Yes52c19.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.