TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eintracht Frankfurtof Eintracht Frankfurt, FOKUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba38…e406backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c6,224$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.8754751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b37…1f70backed Eintracht Frankfurt35c4,530$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.7511159.5%66 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked FOKUS63c3,276$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.146863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed FOKUS44c1,797$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.1530147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed FOKUS63c1,667$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.4523447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c1,552$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.7870251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Eintracht Frankfurt54c1,264$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.6215431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked FOKUS63c1,150$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.5117353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed FOKUS62c1,150$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7132240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed FOKUS64c1,008$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.693938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed FOKUS65c1,000$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6454450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63033348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked FOKUS47c850$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed FOKUS63c849.58$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.1215942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed FOKUS64c797.72$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.3910844.4%48 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked FOKUS60c765.91$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.062934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Eintracht Frankfurt35c654.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.3229733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Eintracht Frankfurt53c614.67$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.14669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FOKUS59c559.36$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7861035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bd7…55f5backed FOKUS63c514.75$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fb…4ce4backed FOKUS63c491.81$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.45825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Eintracht Frankfurt68c488.99$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7723644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt40c482$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.210863%68 W · 40 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked FOKUS68c481.75$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5910346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Eintracht Frankfurt39c465.64$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.154047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17d…2134backed FOKUS64c464.2$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.091457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda30…1d71backed FOKUS63c449.54$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.27825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FOKUS56c444.94$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.9623146.8%108 W · 123 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FOKUS34c441.95$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FOKUS61c412.42$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.427953.2%42 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked FOKUS63c353.83$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.531227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked FOKUS27c327.81$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0514533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e1e…9d4cbacked FOKUS15c318.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.491127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6265…c6c1backed FOKUS62c314.22$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked FOKUS62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18625745.9%118 W · 139 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6af0…fea7backed FOKUS66c296.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.922339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FOKUS63c290.7$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1415343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked FOKUS63c283.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6412850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed FOKUS30c282.22$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8823733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FOKUS54c277.04$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4441537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS51c276.56$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.261,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed FOKUS63c269.87$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.021764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Eintracht Frankfurt66c268.34$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3842540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Eintracht Frankfurt67c251.53$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FOKUS65c244.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.091,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FOKUS47c206.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe986…8f0dbacked FOKUS64c205.48$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FOKUS59c201.83$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6632141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12636648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt38c199.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed Eintracht Frankfurt72c186.22$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.766852.9%36 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Eintracht Frankfurt40c180$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.89750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed FOKUS57c172.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.436250%31 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FOKUS56c157$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.921,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt68c155.95$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1621048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e0…d782backed FOKUS64c144.8$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FOKUS30c140$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7177929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked FOKUS65c139.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.812619.2%5 W · 21 L-8.1wins-0.31per pick50cpaid-66.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xbd74…76b9backed Eintracht Frankfurt35c137.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.183938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked FOKUS68c129.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6815450%77 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Eintracht Frankfurt40c125.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1925555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Eintracht Frankfurt57c122.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2663652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked FOKUS62c117.24$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.314959.7%89 W · 60 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34c5…db89backed FOKUS62c117.24$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2515952.8%84 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbda…8bd5backed FOKUS61c117.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8910550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac5…cab7backed Eintracht Frankfurt70c113.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.757948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FOKUS56c108.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2916345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt39c105.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6454439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FOKUS34c103.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4357517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed Eintracht Frankfurt78c101.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.811866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed FOKUS60c100.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.775048%24 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FOKUS65c98.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.711,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…da18backed FOKUS33c97.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed FOKUS62c97.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.999651%49 W · 47 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed FOKUS62c93.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.884953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ec…7fcabacked FOKUS16c87.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+87.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.423055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.413848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc05f…5be0backed FOKUS49c78.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Eintracht Frankfurt37c66.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Eintracht Frankfurt46c63.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2611258%65 W · 47 L+12.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Eintracht Frankfurt42c62.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.395752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked FOKUS17c62.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310346.6%48 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Eintracht Frankfurt70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1826758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Eintracht Frankfurt39c57.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.266759.7%40 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked FOKUS59c52.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1612239.3%48 W · 74 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed FOKUS60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed FOKUS48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79b3…15c6backed Eintracht Frankfurt50c48.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd94a…fd21backed Eintracht Frankfurt40c48.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked FOKUS40c46.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.715512.3%19 W · 136 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-62.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5c3f…5012backed FOKUS60c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed FOKUS61c41.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3923732.9%78 W · 159 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Eintracht Frankfurt74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.434571%245 W · 100 L-1.5wins0.00per pick71cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked FOKUS63c38.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0211248.2%54 W · 58 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked FOKUS69c33.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1418651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a35…6fe0backed FOKUS69c33.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7715642.3%66 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Eintracht Frankfurt67c31.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.459561.1%58 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FOKUS62c31.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5462856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked FOKUS62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67950.6%40 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.