TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes54c1,808$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6316724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c1,737$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5384,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes46c1,557$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.811,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes46c1,060$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.861,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes16c1,033$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.9445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes67c991.63$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.665,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes57c679.14$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes21c629.62$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.8856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes73c503.71$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3245148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c418.3$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c367.7$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes65c348.88$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.111,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c333.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes41c330.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.351,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c328.31$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No10c326.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4672222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes18c313.31$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.692128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c303.38$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba7…418dbacked No61c302.6$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes30c262.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes28c255.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No13c253.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes80c246.5$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.34665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes15c233.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.671,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c224$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.724,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No40c218.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c216$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c210.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.281,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No17c203.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes18c202.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7219217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c201.37$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.653,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c200.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.853,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes13c198.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.5611334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes16c194.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.721,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes17c191.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes55c183.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.133740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c180.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.822,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes16c167.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8768645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No32c162.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.682,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c162.58$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.441,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes73c159.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6215570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c148.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No29c148$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.281,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes11c140$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.69425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes78c126.77$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1524466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c125$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes26c124.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c120.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.912,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes16c120$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.814932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes65c111$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes53c109.83$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6212564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c109.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.421,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes11c106.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.511,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c100.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.547,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No75c100.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8615717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c92.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No58c88.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c85.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c83.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.129,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes15c82.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.52725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes22c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.38337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No49c79.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4413051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No61c76.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.011,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes20c76.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7527421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes15c73.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes18c66.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.624129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes63c63.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.451,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes79c62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf8…065ebacked Yes74c52.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.53540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c52.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa792…3ba1backed Yes71c50.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes70c48.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.642965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No76c47.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.571,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes80c42.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5815345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd9…8593backed Yes26c41.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes79c40.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.514254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No78c39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4250373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee9d…29a1backed Yes74c38.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No31c37.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c35.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.982,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No79c33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.976163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.364,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe730…f0bbbacked Yes40c30.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.34850%4 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+190.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3231…07c2backed Yes75c29.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+443.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c28.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c00…8c3ebacked Yes67c28.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c26.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.543,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9712832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes77c25.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9283…a336backed Yes74c24.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes75c21.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c75…7d0abacked No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b37…ca6fbacked Yes71c19.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.