TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes5c4,965$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes55c1,339$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.5816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes1c1,008$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes4c885$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.785,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c835.59$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.842,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes48c628.32$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes3c590$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes5c539.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9440525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c532.02$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x611c…7d40backed Yes56c504.4$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3053842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c418.53$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes48c416.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c404.3$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.475,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes54c338.66$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.882416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes21c324.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c323.41$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.414,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes40c316.37$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.654,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b52…589abacked Yes62c289.72$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.88128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-88.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c280$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.425,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c262.36$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2190…bc21backed Yes53c244$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No71c221.77$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c221.52$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.275,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c221$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No42c209.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.043,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfea…c839backed Yes54c206.12$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes56c200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No66c194.3$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes54c185.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes46c171.33$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes53c169.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9024942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes65c165.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c162.57$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.211,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c156.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No48c153.29$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0489661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes19c150.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c150.37$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.364,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c143.51$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.494,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c141.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No70c140.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.566358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes8c136.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c135.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes61c133.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.373740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c130.01$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.269,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes51c130$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes41c122.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes65c118.46$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.471,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e79…29b3backed No48c117.1$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c114.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e61…a88abacked Yes44c113.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes39c112.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes59c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4415843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes75c108.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No64c103.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.091,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No54c103$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3827669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c100.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.361,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.994344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes33c99.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes71c99.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No46c96.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.924546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No47c95.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.114746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No47c90.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.211,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes50c87.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.741,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes54c85.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c000backed Yes35c85.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c84.86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c79.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c6…e320backed Yes63c79.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes43c75.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.252,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes51c74.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes55c72.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8614932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes53c70.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3417926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x872b…d4a0backed Yes53c66.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes43c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4913941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes52c64.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.285939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c63.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c63.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.272,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No61c60.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5172222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed No28c57.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.213348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c56.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No34c56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c54.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes74c53.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes54c53.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4742555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c52.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1729717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No29c50.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8625049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes48c50.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.