TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Enzo Aguiardof Dane Sweeny, Enzo Aguiard
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eab…d4bfbacked Dane Sweeny0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Enzo Aguiard38c6,609$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,085.678,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Dane Sweeny77c6,065$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.291,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Dane Sweeny63c5,800$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.2111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Enzo Aguiard44c5,566$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.416,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Enzo Aguiard22c3,859$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.934,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dane Sweeny56c3,287$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.528,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Enzo Aguiard24c2,319$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.453,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Dane Sweeny23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Enzo Aguiard78c1,927$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.234,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Dane Sweeny59c1,824$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.181,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0378…030bbacked Enzo Aguiard68c1,468$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.6810764.5%69 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Dane Sweeny8c1,436$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4978840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Dane Sweeny46c1,385$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.4527944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Dane Sweeny76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00094068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Dane Sweeny22c1,307$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1471725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Enzo Aguiard64c1,302$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.045,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Enzo Aguiard24c1,093$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.6753843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Dane Sweeny20c1,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Enzo Aguiard24c994.95$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.1657842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Enzo Aguiard55c883$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.351,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Enzo Aguiard64c739.66$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.114,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Dane Sweeny46c683.67$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.441,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Enzo Aguiard24c635.09$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.6610342.7%44 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Dane Sweeny66c592.9$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.764,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Enzo Aguiard60c533.97$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.038,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Dane Sweeny73c481.07$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0236244.8%162 W · 200 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Enzo Aguiard23c434.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.9381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Enzo Aguiard23c434.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.7848842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Dane Sweeny7c434.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.842,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Enzo Aguiard40c411.96$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.192,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Dane Sweeny7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Dane Sweeny74c339.97$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5814637.7%55 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Dane Sweeny77c322.81$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9816645.2%75 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Dane Sweeny76c315.79$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24050958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Enzo Aguiard52c305.66$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7429533.6%99 W · 196 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Enzo Aguiard22c284.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.575,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Enzo Aguiard23c277.14$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.443743.7%191 W · 246 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d8b…e8d7backed Dane Sweeny8c274.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Enzo Aguiard24c257.26$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5220942.6%89 W · 120 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Enzo Aguiard28c241.72$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.185348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Enzo Aguiard28c241.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.8865952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Dane Sweeny54c229.28$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3739035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Dane Sweeny76c219$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.651,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8f0…b753backed Enzo Aguiard55c219$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5514369.2%99 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Enzo Aguiard25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0a…629dbacked Dane Sweeny75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506342.9%27 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Enzo Aguiard26c194.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5592138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…4e0ebacked Dane Sweeny56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016055%88 W · 72 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Dane Sweeny64c171$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.761,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Dane Sweeny41c170.34$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.842,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Enzo Aguiard26c157.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.292,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Enzo Aguiard61c154.12$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.376,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Dane Sweeny10c152.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.870456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Enzo Aguiard75c145.38$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1399244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Enzo Aguiard45c134.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.181,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Dane Sweeny76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Dane Sweeny76c129.87$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Dane Sweeny40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5072651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Dane Sweeny13c120.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3737645.7%172 W · 204 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Enzo Aguiard24c119.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1944442.3%188 W · 256 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe71…8437backed Dane Sweeny44c113.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5711239.3%44 W · 68 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Enzo Aguiard26c103.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Dane Sweeny70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.61,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Enzo Aguiard46c91.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.491,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ee…4a94backed Dane Sweeny23c89.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.874748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Enzo Aguiard24c81.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8134242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Enzo Aguiard79c79.43$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.932152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Dane Sweeny68c77.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.521838.1%83 W · 135 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Dane Sweeny75c74.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8691755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0813…41e1backed Dane Sweeny74c72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2837158.8%218 W · 153 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed Dane Sweeny28c68.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.015516.4%9 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Enzo Aguiard49c67.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3385742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Enzo Aguiard24c65.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6731220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82d…7882backed Dane Sweeny28c64.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.075137.3%19 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Dane Sweeny74c64.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8213151.9%68 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Dane Sweeny34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1759440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Dane Sweeny40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x831d…0705backed Enzo Aguiard78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1126563.8%169 W · 96 L-12.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Dane Sweeny40c48.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.331,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9355…038dbacked Dane Sweeny24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.787945.6%36 W · 43 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Dane Sweeny74c42.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8830554.4%166 W · 139 L-1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Enzo Aguiard28c41.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6732732.1%105 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dane Sweeny51c39.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0580153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Dane Sweeny26c39.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3323427.4%64 W · 170 L-40.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Enzo Aguiard47c37.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5158539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Dane Sweeny51c36.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.542,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Enzo Aguiard66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.935187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Dane Sweeny44c34.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b85…b31bbacked Enzo Aguiard44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0911541.7%48 W · 67 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Dane Sweeny40c33.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Dane Sweeny38c28.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114333.6%48 W · 95 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked Dane Sweeny76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207262.5%45 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Dane Sweeny76c25.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.637,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad70…23f1backed Dane Sweeny76c23.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813253%70 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…9bc4backed Enzo Aguiard64c20.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4547274.4%351 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8c…20e4backed Enzo Aguiard73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.410264.7%66 W · 36 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0457…4f8ebacked Dane Sweeny73c13.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103050%15 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.