South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1af49089d1e32e33688dcf525c39ff002cf5a30d95d61241d2a34a929a13372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 5,087$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.33 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 4,885$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.55 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 4,093$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 43c | 3,360$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.94 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,380$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.42 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 58c | 2,208$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.15 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 32c | 1,472$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 1,462$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.42 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 62c | 1,100$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.19 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed No | 73c | 872.8$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 67c | 563$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed No | 76c | 548.05$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.14 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 497.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.76 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked No | 63c | 465.31$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 46 | 80.4%37 W · 9 L | +14.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 358.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.63 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 346$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.01 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 344.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 20c | 327.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 28c | 303.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 36c | 239.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 215.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…8d99backed No | 72c | 215.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 24c | 210.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.74 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 48c | 195.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 50c | 161.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 154.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 27c | 147.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 33c | 143.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 11c | 142.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 41c | 138.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 138.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 42c | 115.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 106.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 58c | 105.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 73c | 103.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 21c | 96.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 73c | 95.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 45c | 89.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7d54backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 19c | 69.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…46eebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 56.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 37c | 52.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…fc7cbacked No | 73c | 47.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 37c | 43.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 71c | 42.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 53c | 35.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 72c | 28.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 72c | 28.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 47c | 28.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Yes | 48c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…1ea3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…c20ebacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 72c | 19.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…4715backed No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.