South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb25569b4592b580f55d7310b73b45a2582557ca332e8ccdf6d3cf06a49b96f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 13c | 5,107$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.35 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 1,688$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed No | 72c | 1,173$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +9.7wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 18c | 961$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 751$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 69c | 634.74$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 21c | 516.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc19…00bdbacked Yes | 26c | 478.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 471.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 23c | 425.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 16c | 420.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…da8ebacked No | 70c | 396.82$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 27c | 373$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…30aabacked No | 75c | 327.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed No | 64c | 321.27$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 35c | 298.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +15.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 22c | 293.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 29c | 245.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 27c | 237$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…67c1backed No | 80c | 208.23$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 75c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 199.06$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 13c | 178.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 26c | 161.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a351backed No | 73c | 160.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 157.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 143.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 75c | 119.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 63c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 59c | 84.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 30c | 51.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 46.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 40c | 38.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…fd8fbacked No | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 74c | 33.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed No | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 53c | 27.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 27.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…131abacked No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 79c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…c20ebacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.