Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2411e8e1c8fdacd2e7000d1487a2db2aa3c387e3d99baea8651592571fcb360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 14c | 4,589$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.43 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 1c | 3,555$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 3,220$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.15 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 27c | 3,124$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,712$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.06 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 73c | 1,846$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.55 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 8c | 1,067$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 15c | 733.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d57…c4a7backed Yes | 27c | 718.52$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 73c | 405$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…d474backed Yes | 26c | 380.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 75c | 369.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 73c | 340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…b9dcbacked Yes | 24c | 339.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…3412backed No | 75c | 249.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked No | 74c | 195$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 26c | 195$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…a006backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…30d3backed Yes | 27c | 99.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f9…6d62backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…2746backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…12b5backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Yes | 31c | 78.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…9568backed No | 75c | 77.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…902dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…f64fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…e44fbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83da…41f7backed No | 75c | 50.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 25c | 50.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 75c | 48.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 26c | 45.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…03e0backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 313 | 59.4%186 W · 127 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2025-03-16?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.