Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a4acbbf7d28e178f03c9b2509d88f4ea8d79548d7fc9ec465bb33da23aa399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…87e0backed No | 21c | 14,954$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.64 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 16c | 5,846$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.39 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 80c | 3,900$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 258 | 57.4%148 W · 110 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 19c | 3,378$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed No | 17c | 2,867$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…4b4abacked Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 79c | 1,386$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.34 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 20c | 1,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 565.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 79c | 538.2$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 17c | 472.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 17c | 449.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 405.29$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 17c | 389.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 77c | 320.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 11c | 247.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 19c | 217.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 215.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 79c | 167$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed No | 17c | 161.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 10c | 135.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…3a1bbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0720backed Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 85.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.