Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f6559bb85ac13e5a00e4e77f23e8e0319e2e86625904b0c2c21ec9c9d8327d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 75c | 282.86$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed Yes | 36c | 239.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 32c | 172.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 151.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 150.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 129.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 103.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 68c | 70.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 64c | 59.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 59.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…6c81backed Yes | 46c | 54.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 62c | 52.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 47.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 46.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 45.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 35c | 41.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 61c | 31.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 27.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 25.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 57c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.