Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f74fc23f6a803f0079967acebf715a92a06b3398ad8d8096e13331f9d85d39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 15c | 393.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 245.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 56c | 243.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed No | 62c | 199.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 165.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 61c | 163.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 161.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 38c | 158.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 63c | 149.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 143$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 131.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 131.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 35c | 118.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 108.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 47c | 106.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 15c | 105.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 85.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 38c | 81.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 74.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 68.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 66.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…7107backed Yes | 63c | 63.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 59.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 59.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 41c | 59.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 60c | 58.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 52.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 51.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…7137backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 38c | 43.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 35c | 42.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 55c | 41.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 40.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 61c | 36.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 35.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 28.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…afeebacked Yes | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 65c | 24.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 22.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 64c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 18.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 76c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.