Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3fe8adbb2522e77b58bb2ca04f19923adcf1a85c436d5a66e5aaec6b98f2054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 701.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 368.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 353.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 234.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 229.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 14c | 225$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 222.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 58c | 189.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 11c | 179.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 170.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 147.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 17c | 134.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 31c | 117.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 18c | 117.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 112.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 107.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 17c | 105.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 52c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 90.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 84.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 69c | 67.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 40c | 61.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 18c | 59.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 49.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 49.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 31c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 76c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 32.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.