TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billy Harrisof Coleman Wong, Billy Harris
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a67…e403backed Coleman Wong57c60,156$34,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,151.8411554.8%63 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Billy Harris43c25,939$11,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,881.468,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Billy Harris45c15,611$6,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,656.3911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Coleman Wong7c14,315$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.578,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Billy Harris42c2,634$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.054,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Billy Harris51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Billy Harris80c2,467$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.254,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Billy Harris49c2,044$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.2254541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Coleman Wong31c1,937$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb45…0cadbacked Billy Harris48c1,486$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.0511963.9%76 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Coleman Wong49c1,384$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.814,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Billy Harris45c1,331$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.261,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Coleman Wong9c1,069$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.522020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Billy Harris45c1,045$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57452355.6%291 W · 232 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Billy Harris45c1,015$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.4244552.8%235 W · 210 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…d0f0backed Billy Harris45c1,007$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.6746155.3%255 W · 206 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Billy Harris59c1,001$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.313,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Billy Harris45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55043054.9%236 W · 194 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Billy Harris45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55047651.9%247 W · 229 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Billy Harris56c989.49$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.615,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Billy Harris42c952.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3887337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Billy Harris42c795.73$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.395050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Billy Harris71c722.25$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4535951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Billy Harris70c652.23$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.174,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Billy Harris51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2454,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Billy Harris61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.836657.7%211 W · 155 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Billy Harris61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.835955.7%200 W · 159 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Coleman Wong59c477.47$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Billy Harris42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1910440.4%42 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Billy Harris49c383.65$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.561,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Coleman Wong21c359.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.830040%120 W · 180 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Coleman Wong21c345.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0311451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Coleman Wong58c344.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20073458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Coleman Wong58c338.98$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.611,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Coleman Wong49c316.7$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8444758.8%263 W · 184 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Coleman Wong20c303.05$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.651,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Coleman Wong32c246.65$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Coleman Wong46c225.67$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Coleman Wong57c224.56$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12821244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Billy Harris72c213.15$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6834748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Billy Harris49c212.04$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.262,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed Coleman Wong49c199$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5139759.4%236 W · 161 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Billy Harris68c187.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.598,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e1…ecb4backed Billy Harris42c174.84$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.073063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Coleman Wong57c174.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Billy Harris42c166.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.655,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Coleman Wong49c166.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6237460.4%226 W · 148 L+29.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Billy Harris61c157.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.381,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Coleman Wong47c142.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6730150.2%151 W · 150 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Coleman Wong40c141.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.111,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Billy Harris74c136.51$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.866,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Billy Harris73c136.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.081,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Coleman Wong19c132.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6731220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…ba31backed Coleman Wong11c132.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152015%3 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Billy Harris42c125$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.566831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88e…929fbacked Coleman Wong16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…675fbacked Billy Harris43c122.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8510140.6%41 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d07…b9febacked Coleman Wong14c121.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.013208.8%28 W · 292 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Coleman Wong22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.419941.7%83 W · 116 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Billy Harris46c119.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.442,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Billy Harris44c113.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.627231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Billy Harris63c111.16$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.646,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Coleman Wong51c105$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.552,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a51…a98fbacked Billy Harris48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.172944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Coleman Wong37c102.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.142,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Coleman Wong15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1568430%205 W · 479 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Coleman Wong58c99.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Billy Harris45c96.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5958539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815b…a1c7backed Billy Harris42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.247338.4%28 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Billy Harris69c95.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Coleman Wong56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfffa…17c5backed Coleman Wong38c89.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6336545.2%165 W · 200 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Billy Harris49c88.21$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.122,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Billy Harris47c76.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.63,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f49…cc93backed Coleman Wong56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Billy Harris44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Coleman Wong57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Billy Harris50c66.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3943750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Billy Harris47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.832,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Billy Harris42c56.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4945744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Billy Harris42c55.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.993,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Coleman Wong61c54.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.52,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Billy Harris73c54.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Coleman Wong34c53.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.157842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Coleman Wong59c51.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2333152.6%174 W · 157 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Coleman Wong36c50.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.161,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Billy Harris48c50.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.254,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Billy Harris60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2048355.1%266 W · 217 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Coleman Wong54c47.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Billy Harris47c47.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3562727.3%171 W · 456 L-15.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Billy Harris63c46.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3574346.3%344 W · 399 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Billy Harris61c45.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.581,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Coleman Wong56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.274955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Billy Harris72c44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3292674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Billy Harris54c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8635060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2447…7c4dbacked Coleman Wong49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Billy Harris49c38.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.563,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Coleman Wong53c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bfd…63bfbacked Coleman Wong61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a9…3579backed Billy Harris46c29.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.74637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.