NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52ac81a0d2b582e652ff122fa6a7d70ea6df016f506f272852afe1cc770fc90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinals of Raiders , Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Raiders | 59c | 5,085$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Raiders | 63c | 5,081$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185.74 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 43c | 3,410$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.55 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Cardinals | 42c | 3,395$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 38c | 3,349$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.55 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Raiders | 66c | 2,276$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Cardinals | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders | 49c | 1,677$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.8 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cardinals | 60c | 1,345$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.29 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Raiders | 64c | 1,170$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.94 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…edf8backed Raiders | 56c | 1,090$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Cardinals | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.08 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Cardinals | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Raiders | 58c | 862$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cardinals | 52c | 833.14$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.74 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Raiders | 39c | 806$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.96 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Raiders | 62c | 798.63$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Cardinals | 51c | 788.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Cardinals | 43c | 742.26$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Raiders | 3c | 731.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Raiders | 71c | 730$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.27 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cardinals | 42c | 696.15$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.47 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cardinals | 38c | 669.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.93 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Cardinals | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Raiders | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cardinals | 41c | 469.88$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.11 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Raiders | 16c | 463.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cardinals | 47c | 429.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders | 57c | 402.4$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Raiders | 54c | 357$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cardinals | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Raiders | 59c | 305.93$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Cardinals | 47c | 304.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Cardinals | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Cardinals | 40c | 248.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cardinals | 41c | 242.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Raiders | 60c | 230$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Cardinals | 38c | 215.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Raiders | 54c | 210.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cardinals | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Raiders | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 35c | 180$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals | 53c | 151.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…d8d1backed Cardinals | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Raiders | 60c | 133.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae3f…12fabacked Cardinals | 46c | 121.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Raiders | 57c | 119.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Cardinals | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Cardinals | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Cardinals | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Raiders | 28c | 101.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Cardinals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Raiders | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cardinals | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Raiders | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Cardinals | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…b1cfbacked Cardinals | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Cardinals | 44c | 57.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…cb54backed Raiders | 70c | 54.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…2937backed Cardinals | 79c | 48.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Cardinals | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Raiders | 62c | 41.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Cardinals | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…b40fbacked Raiders | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Cardinals | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Cardinals | 42c | 24.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Raiders | 56c | 23.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.