UFC · resolved market
Moicano vs. Saint Denis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5725085eac73d5c8c3aacf7421bab4757ae9a229410a8aeefc26a0c0b5827db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moicanoof Moicano, Saint Denis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Moicano | 29c | 4,933$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,511.99 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Saint Denis | 72c | 4,178$3,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Saint Denis | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.97 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Moicano | 32c | 2,447$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.24 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Saint Denis | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Moicano | 45c | 1,971$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Saint Denis | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Moicano | 27c | 1,365$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.31 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…7b99backed Saint Denis | 74c | 1,039$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…2328backed Saint Denis | 76c | 956.58$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Moicano | 27c | 855.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.86 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Moicano | 29c | 686.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…634cbacked Saint Denis | 73c | 685.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…735cbacked Saint Denis | 29c | 657.62$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Saint Denis | 49c | 508.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.69 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Moicano | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…5e01backed Saint Denis | 76c | 343.16$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…cbc1backed Saint Denis | 71c | 320$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Moicano | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Moicano | 26c | 269.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…6673backed Moicano | 28c | 247.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…8251backed Saint Denis | 75c | 181.58$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Saint Denis | 75c | 162.44$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…6bd3backed Saint Denis | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Moicano | 28c | 107$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…1983backed Moicano | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Moicano | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…4c76backed Moicano | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…6a77backed Moicano | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Saint Denis | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Moicano | 34c | 88.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Saint Denis | 72c | 76.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…f9a4backed Saint Denis | 72c | 73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…6630backed Saint Denis | 73c | 67.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc361…a373backed Saint Denis | 65c | 61.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Saint Denis | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Saint Denis | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…e149backed Saint Denis | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Moicano | 32c | 44.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Saint Denis | 73c | 44.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…27a0backed Saint Denis | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Saint Denis | 72c | 38.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…4b12backed Saint Denis | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…da01backed Saint Denis | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Saint Denis | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Saint Denis | 73c | 26.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd18…9873backed Saint Denis | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…086dbacked Saint Denis | 74c | 23.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Saint Denis | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moicano vs. Saint Denisthis page
- Charrière vs. MirandaCharrière won
- Gomis vs. BritoGomis won
- Imavov vs. AllenImavov won
- Jousset vs. BattleBattle won
- Ziam vs. FrevolaZiam won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.