TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$413,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$424,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0165…8235backed Texas Rangers49c31,207$15,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,150.57933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Texas Rangers0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked New York Yankees53c27,000$14,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,69038148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers47c23,000$10,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,809.9660451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed New York Yankees69c20,292$14,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,291.571,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Texas Rangers48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x446f…b09fbacked Texas Rangers37c18,000$6,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,660933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees52c15,382$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,381.591,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed New York Yankees54c14,406$7,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,626.7337953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees53c13,804$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,487.871,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Texas Rangers21c11,698$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.212227.9%34 W · 88 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers47c10,184$4,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,748.255,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Yankees52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f28…707dbacked New York Yankees52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Texas Rangers47c6,765$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.555862.1%36 W · 22 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Texas Rangers48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked New York Yankees64c5,635$3,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.9248850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c4…78c6backed Texas Rangers0c5,385$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Texas Rangers47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3504835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees71c4,175$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.635,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Texas Rangers18c3,871$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers36c3,499$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.3310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees67c3,217$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.234,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Texas Rangers25c3,207$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.669153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Yankees71c3,169$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.71,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Texas Rangers46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed New York Yankees52c2,943$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.6312457.3%71 W · 53 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Texas Rangers32c2,446$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77713655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees72c2,411$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.382,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Texas Rangers26c2,339$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.971,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e0…4e38backed New York Yankees53c2,298$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees70c2,140$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Texas Rangers23c2,060$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.021,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Texas Rangers46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92027451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Texas Rangers46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.9933852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7585…ea79backed Texas Rangers47c1,981$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.074542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Texas Rangers18c1,941$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.66845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked New York Yankees64c1,831$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.16875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+97.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2cb8backed New York Yankees54c1,773$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.319652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Texas Rangers17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014243%61 W · 81 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Texas Rangers20c1,755$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.621,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Texas Rangers47c1,550$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.511947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Texas Rangers23c1,318$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9113818.8%26 W · 112 L-17.2wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers27c1,273$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.699,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers24c1,210$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.642,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers27c1,208$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.355,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Texas Rangers10c1,206$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed New York Yankees53c1,179$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.2529449.7%146 W · 148 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked New York Yankees68c1,153$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0421449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Texas Rangers47c1,097$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.8157744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Texas Rangers46c1,093$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.551,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Texas Rangers29c1,048$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5311331.9%36 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed New York Yankees53c1,047$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0975049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Texas Rangers48c1,046$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2330844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees54c1,020$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.216543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed New York Yankees52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48014938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Texas Rangers33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33023244%102 W · 130 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed New York Yankees66c985$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.925240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers26c930.98$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.858,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed New York Yankees54c743.42$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.9750860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Texas Rangers46c729.41$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5312640.5%51 W · 75 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed New York Yankees53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32911744.4%52 W · 65 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas Rangers29c628.53$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.751,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked New York Yankees72c624.5$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.9567742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Texas Rangers46c623.36$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7551547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Yankees53c619.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.191,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed New York Yankees74c611.79$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7910762.6%67 W · 40 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Texas Rangers4c583.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed New York Yankees68c582$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.246755.2%37 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed New York Yankees68c582$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.247556%42 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed New York Yankees67c580$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.254658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Texas Rangers9c549.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3870735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Texas Rangers18c528.85$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5933515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Texas Rangers46c518.86$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8611849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Texas Rangers2c503.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5826618.4%49 W · 217 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Texas Rangers47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23512549.6%62 W · 63 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed New York Yankees53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23519248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed New York Yankees53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23540645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed New York Yankees51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24580159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Texas Rangers47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed New York Yankees53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354055%22 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed New York Yankees65c499.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1755429.6%16 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers49c498.72$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Yankees53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.794034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.71,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed New York Yankees54c470$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.222548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers39c465.88$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.783,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas Rangers23c458.39$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.852,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Texas Rangers35c450.44$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2810544.8%47 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Texas Rangers47c450$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.534648.6%168 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde27…2cfdbacked New York Yankees54c444.44$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.441540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Texas Rangers15c430.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.63296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Texas Rangers24c417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3632751.7%169 W · 158 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Texas Rangers33c407$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6539640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Texas Rangers49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19650949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed New York Yankees63c394.42$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.425054%27 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Texas Rangers52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20036440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e35…fe8cbacked New York Yankees53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.365540%22 W · 33 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-31.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers46c370.85$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.741,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers46c341.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.456,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.