MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc706e2354b564bdc80f587ca0e35f36cd0ffa38402e6c3aeb15ccc706f53a4d9

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Houston Astros
Resolved: Apr 21, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $104,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,978 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5be…7c6ebacked San Diego Padres	57c	46,023$26,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,623.09	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-5.1wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Houston Astros	53c	20,012$10,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,606.36	279	48.4%135 W · 144 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked San Diego Padres	47c	19,742$9,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,463.26	245	53.5%131 W · 114 L	+10.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Houston Astros	36c	17,417$6,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,202.46	2,274	43.2%983 W · 1,291 L	+43.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros	51c	12,982$6,557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,556.57	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres	52c	5,143$2,672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,471.12	2,203	50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L	+29.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Houston Astros	51c	5,000$2,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,525	867	51.8%449 W · 418 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros	52c	4,112$2,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,158	1,212	52.1%631 W · 581 L	+21.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Houston Astros	52c	3,571$1,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,841.73	248	44%109 W · 139 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Houston Astros	53c	2,729$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.96	211	47.9%101 W · 110 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked San Diego Padres	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	217	48.4%105 W · 112 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Houston Astros	43c	2,001$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.48	1,591	50.3%801 W · 790 L	+68.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Houston Astros	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	219	41.1%90 W · 129 L	-19.8wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Houston Astros	51c	1,980$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.93	733	52.4%384 W · 349 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Houston Astros	50c	1,800$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	418	50%209 W · 209 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Houston Astros	46c	1,254$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.06	797	40.4%322 W · 475 L	-19.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros	41c	1,065$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.3	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Houston Astros	35c	1,020$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.27	145	39.3%57 W · 88 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed San Diego Padres	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	1,250	52.2%653 W · 597 L	-5.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Houston Astros	52c	998.98$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.47	958	50%479 W · 479 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Houston Astros	22c	900$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Houston Astros	35c	579.41$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.07	1,358	45.9%624 W · 734 L	+41.5wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5c…ccbdbacked Houston Astros	51c	490.2$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked San Diego Padres	58c	488.83$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.31	513	34.5%177 W · 336 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres	49c	429.66$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.13	467	53.7%251 W · 216 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres	50c	400$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199	927	54.9%509 W · 418 L	-19.1wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed San Diego Padres	49c	399.99$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked San Diego Padres	49c	366.43$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.43	376	49.5%186 W · 190 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Houston Astros	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.3wins	-0.23per pick	54cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58db…ea03backed Houston Astros	50c	235.32$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.62	123	47.2%58 W · 65 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros	17c	205.26$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1,180	7.2%85 W · 1,095 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Houston Astros	52c	205.13$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	235	45.5%107 W · 128 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2,033	52.4%1,066 W · 967 L	-35.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked San Diego Padres	62c	183.03$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.32	639	42.7%273 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4074…7d83backed Houston Astros	55c	182.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeeee…ccb7backed San Diego Padres	47c	148.94$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.94	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Houston Astros	56c	112.81$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.77	809	55.5%449 W · 360 L	+12.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,267	53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L	-12.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa3…072dbacked Houston Astros	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Houston Astros	55c	72.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Houston Astros	50c	68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	229	46.3%106 W · 123 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ea…e15cbacked Houston Astros	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	223	51.6%115 W · 108 L	+16.9wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed San Diego Padres	49c	64.27$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.78	133	48.1%64 W · 69 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed San Diego Padres	49c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ea…a4b6backed San Diego Padres	52c	57.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.56	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf391…73c3backed Houston Astros	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	295	52.2%154 W · 141 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros	51c	45.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	405	57.8%234 W · 171 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c2…4992backed San Diego Padres	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-6.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Houston Astros	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Houston Astros	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.19per pick	45cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff7f…c7a4backed Houston Astros	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	551	52.5%289 W · 262 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4887…179dbacked San Diego Padres	48c	27.92$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-5.1wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed San Diego Padres	48c	26.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.61	375	52.5%197 W · 178 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed San Diego Padres	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	364	53%193 W · 171 L	-17.4wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Houston Astros	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed San Diego Padres	46c	21.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.87	406	29.1%118 W · 288 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed San Diego Padres	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	203	67%136 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market