TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Winnipeg: Justin Boulais vs Johannus Monday

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Johannus Mondayof Justin Boulais, Johannus Monday
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69c5…1e01backed Justin Boulais22c60,127$12,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,938.622152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Justin Boulais10c43,472$4,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,347.251,14346.4%530 W · 613 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Johannus Monday77c40,107$30,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,212.68,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Johannus Monday56c7,829$4,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.868,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Johannus Monday76c6,823$5,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.28,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Johannus Monday66c6,288$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1146,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef53…4591backed Johannus Monday51c6,018$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.7717543.4%76 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Justin Boulais10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Johannus Monday57c4,183$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.331,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Justin Boulais35c3,325$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.962,23852.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L+80.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Justin Boulais30c3,125$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.392,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ace…c46ebacked Justin Boulais6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9828221.6%61 W · 221 L+0.6wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3099…3896backed Justin Boulais27c2,421$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.692650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Johannus Monday58c2,352$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.53,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Justin Boulais44c2,108$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.391,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Justin Boulais51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9911144.1%49 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Justin Boulais44c1,905$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.7449957.5%287 W · 212 L+29.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Johannus Monday67c1,894$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.8931052.9%164 W · 146 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Johannus Monday59c1,665$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.5950442.7%215 W · 289 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked Justin Boulais54c1,609$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.1121046.2%97 W · 113 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Johannus Monday74c1,343$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.1929443.5%128 W · 166 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Justin Boulais58c1,333$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.644,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Justin Boulais43c1,239$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.441,84445.7%843 W · 1,001 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Justin Boulais43c1,166$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,84244.8%825 W · 1,017 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Johannus Monday55c1,107$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.196,41946.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Johannus Monday73c1,099$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.641,66752.8%881 W · 786 L+43.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Johannus Monday61c1,000$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.19,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Justin Boulais27c962.91$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.419626%51 W · 145 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…20c0backed Johannus Monday75c939.99$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.279053.3%48 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Johannus Monday52c854.75$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.094,87541.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L-77.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Justin Boulais43c845.79$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6959852.7%315 W · 283 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Johannus Monday61c841.85$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.851,07360.4%648 W · 425 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Johannus Monday48c746.96$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.961,56340%625 W · 938 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc779…8e4fbacked Johannus Monday74c673.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.447767.5%52 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Justin Boulais45c668.04$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6287237.2%324 W · 548 L-3.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Justin Boulais43c628.79$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.383,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Justin Boulais10c625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015733.1%52 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed Justin Boulais10c625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010931.2%34 W · 75 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Justin Boulais10c625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014936.9%55 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked Justin Boulais10c625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609437.2%35 W · 59 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+3.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Johannus Monday62c523.88$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1514272.5%103 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Justin Boulais26c523.74$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5343950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Johannus Monday47c474.92$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.496,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Justin Boulais32c474.46$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7327836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Justin Boulais53c460.37$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8814259.2%84 W · 58 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Johannus Monday54c455.37$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.389248.9%45 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Justin Boulais52c423.89$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9735153.8%189 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Johannus Monday10c421.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1928454.2%154 W · 130 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Justin Boulais43c420.91$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8327454%148 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Johannus Monday69c418.84$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8976355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Justin Boulais44c416.11$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8426854.5%146 W · 122 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Justin Boulais48c399.27$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7279857.6%460 W · 338 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552f…3fb4backed Justin Boulais43c397.59$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.951540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Justin Boulais51c373.48$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9528652.8%151 W · 135 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Justin Boulais28c360.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Justin Boulais12c357.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.865549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Johannus Monday58c346.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.021,44448.8%705 W · 739 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Johannus Monday62c324.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6927655.1%152 W · 124 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe256…db21backed Johannus Monday73c318.86$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.063450%17 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Justin Boulais10c312.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018038.3%69 W · 111 L+13.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd928…705fbacked Justin Boulais49c311.05$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9827852.5%146 W · 132 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Justin Boulais10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.848738.4%187 W · 300 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd9…90b2backed Justin Boulais10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89532.6%31 W · 64 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff0…0a65backed Justin Boulais14c266.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.457943%34 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010e…7bbebacked Johannus Monday45c265.89$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.91637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Justin Boulais10c260$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9615437%57 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbab2…9decbacked Justin Boulais54c257.45$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5127551.3%141 W · 134 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Justin Boulais34c252.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.471,65744.2%733 W · 924 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Justin Boulais16c248.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028042.9%120 W · 160 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…60f0backed Justin Boulais10c241$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.148530.6%26 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Justin Boulais22c239.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.255,37748.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L+16.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf545…4036backed Justin Boulais54c236.21$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Justin Boulais50c232.57$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.132,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Johannus Monday69c232.45$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.042,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Justin Boulais44c229.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026450%132 W · 132 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Justin Boulais16c229.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9981933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Justin Boulais10c220$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1217136.3%62 W · 109 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Justin Boulais44c214.12$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,01141.4%419 W · 592 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Johannus Monday71c209.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.991,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9845…9d6fbacked Justin Boulais10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26432.8%21 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f95…bf8ebacked Justin Boulais10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27939.2%31 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed Justin Boulais10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28840.9%36 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc077…eeffbacked Justin Boulais46c199.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Justin Boulais67c199.58$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.484,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…525fbacked Johannus Monday51c195.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.983661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Johannus Monday52c193.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.825633.6%86 W · 170 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Johannus Monday52c193.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.844051.6%227 W · 213 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Justin Boulais28c176.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.565942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Justin Boulais10c174.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7612746.5%59 W · 68 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Johannus Monday55c170.84$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.395,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed Justin Boulais51c170.34$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0134854%188 W · 160 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked Justin Boulais31c159.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.811838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Johannus Monday64c156.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4946453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc951…e212backed Johannus Monday24c145.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.635827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa594…fe78backed Johannus Monday75c144.87$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.73871.1%27 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Justin Boulais8c143.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e76…eac1backed Johannus Monday73c137.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.552548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Johannus Monday62c133$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Justin Boulais73c129$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.892674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Johannus Monday79c126.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7420152.2%105 W · 96 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.