F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8ad875ca1a7b346d246b8b225ffc25b3e84077b4609280dea52a9a543392aef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8834…d285backed Yes | 3c | 25,179$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 6c | 8,103$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.87 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 7,939$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.24 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 13c | 5,447$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 76c | 2,802$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.04 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 13c | 2,681$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.53 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 13c | 2,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,735$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…d528backed Yes | 32c | 779.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes | 15c | 700$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 69c | 629.17$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 13c | 552$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 25c | 526$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…e861backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 30c | 484.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 32c | 472.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 2c | 423$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…972fbacked Yes | 34c | 406.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 72c | 396.1$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 11c | 387$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes | 30c | 349.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Yes | 15c | 326.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 33c | 308$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 30c | 280.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 16c | 279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 27c | 277.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 31c | 267.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 74c | 256.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 68c | 239.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Yes | 30c | 228.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 15c | 224.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 70c | 221.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 20c | 219.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…ff91backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 79c | 182.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 15c | 177.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…a74fbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf98a…99b1backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…aaa2backed No | 70c | 117.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…08b2backed Yes | 30c | 115.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 73c | 98.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…3b95backed Yes | 30c | 96.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…f1babacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 15c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f5…4183backed Yes | 38c | 74.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 63c | 49.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 36c | 43.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…4de9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 73c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.