Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1980bdf724fe5cb48c7e405c8a925d93b600c75f5088098653f38657fdc22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 6c | 699.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 360.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 360.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 39c | 268.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 246.54$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…2f80backed Yes | 42c | 219.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…db1abacked Yes | 8c | 216.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 16c | 123.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 115.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…7a04backed Yes | 21c | 109.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 106.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 99.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 98.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 79.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 31c | 68.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 67c | 64.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 66c | 62.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 60.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 65c | 57.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 31c | 49.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 43c | 45.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 38.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 43c | 33.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 76c | 29.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 28.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 66c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 21.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 67c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…1ba7backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.