Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaaa687684eb1829f0d57e476db53504a98390e93259ff7dc2966a32b985a9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 9,454$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.51 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 8c | 8,479$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.38 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 9c | 3,438$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 672 | 9.2%62 W · 610 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…2b03backed Yes | 12c | 3,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…826fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,315$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…50bcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…7fbabacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…b3d0backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 19.7%41 W · 167 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…08ebbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 9c | 490.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…bf19backed Yes | 11c | 470.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 9c | 395.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…9e68backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0ad3backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…093abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…a7fcbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 23.7%28 W · 90 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 16.3%40 W · 206 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…a873backed Yes | 9c | 213.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…c9abbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2252…5f66backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…f256backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…b9fbbacked Yes | 8c | 132.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…b8edbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacab…452dbacked Yes | 13c | 118.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 9c | 117.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…3a43backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?Yes won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand?No won
- Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.