Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaab86e61426ad154c7d04f251f9ed2045c264e985c77e2837eceda859d8041c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 11,044$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 7c | 3,476$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.27 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed Yes | 39c | 2,691$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.87 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,627$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…3f7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,543$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,438$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 1,139$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed No | 63c | 788.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.93 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 737.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 722.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 656.03$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 19c | 599.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 31c | 569.78$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.37 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 553.36$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 63c | 550.58$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 40c | 500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…cf1cbacked Yes | 5c | 438.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 7c | 432$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 73c | 425.93$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 423.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 53c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 44c | 378.57$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 363.03$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 351.25$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 343.95$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 341.91$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 12c | 329.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 7c | 322.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…1d09backed Yes | 47c | 300.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 46c | 279.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 263.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 54c | 260.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…f095backed Yes | 45c | 243.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes | 49c | 240.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 54c | 240$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 229.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 227.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…6ea4backed Yes | 59c | 224.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 218.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 213.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 62c | 206.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 205.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 54c | 205$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 204.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 47c | 187.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 55c | 181.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 34c | 175$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 9c | 170.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 37c | 156.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 54c | 147.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 49c | 146.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 79c | 146.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 48c | 140.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 133.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 50c | 126.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 122.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 114.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ef0ebacked Yes | 15c | 107.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 107.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 29c | 105.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 12c | 104.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 21c | 104.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 50c | 103.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 51c | 102.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 20c | 101.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 20c | 96.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 50c | 93.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 93.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…c81fbacked No | 50c | 92.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 84.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 82.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 82.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 80.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 48c | 80.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 50c | 79.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 71.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…d606backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked Yes | 52c | 70.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 59c | 67.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 59.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…87e3backed No | 51c | 59.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.