Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdefa3b0e04da8ca981fe1176206f40335cf777311dac87d80b8e5d727a391764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2097…7dc3backed Yes | 3c | 17,064$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 12c | 2,131$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 1,807$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 32c | 1,403$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.25 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 4c | 1,172$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…4898backed Yes | 1c | 1,139$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,100$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.13 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…c4b8backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…6a80backed No | 79c | 971.6$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 968.52$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes | 36c | 939.8$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 855.43$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 51c | 734.59$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.2 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 682.3$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 34c | 669.51$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 53c | 661.55$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.16 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 19c | 604.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 56c | 602.28$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…f887backed Yes | 4c | 535.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 49c | 502.03$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.8 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes | 47c | 427.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 44c | 371.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 360$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 66c | 353.65$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 47c | 322.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 67c | 299.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 45c | 281.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 73c | 274.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 50c | 267.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 264.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 54c | 251.15$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 249.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 244.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 241.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…70a3backed Yes | 42c | 240.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…92b8backed Yes | 23c | 213.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 31c | 209.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 201.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 197.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 37c | 190.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 70c | 183.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 18c | 181.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 73c | 177.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 42c | 168.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 46c | 167.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 167.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 18c | 145.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed No | 69c | 145.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 13c | 141.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 141.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 140.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 46c | 138.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 45c | 137$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 44c | 136.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 135.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 27c | 133.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 52c | 132.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 43c | 127.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 48c | 127.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed Yes | 43c | 124.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 120.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 117.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 66c | 117$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 116.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 50c | 116.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 60c | 113$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 102.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 102.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 24c | 99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 97.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…f4febacked Yes | 19c | 95.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 86.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 59c | 85.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 43c | 81.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 56c | 80.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 48c | 80.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 55c | 79.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 77.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 54c | 73.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 14c | 73.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 45c | 70.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed No | 60c | 70.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 48c | 68.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…42f0backed Yes | 65c | 67.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 33c | 66.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked No | 60c | 66.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 44c | 65.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 56c | 64.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 47c | 63.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.