TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes45c2,019$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.2286420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c1,070$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.365,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed No6c871.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.611631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes46c817.27$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.9830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes48c706.46$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.2223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes37c608.52$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.473540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No52c552.65$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.828955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed Yes59c487.97$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.697518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c435.55$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.813,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes34c388.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.381,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c310.74$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No54c308.17$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.542,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c299.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No43c298.81$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1263656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf83…8508backed Yes35c283.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No20c280.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.662,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes44c279.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No57c278.93$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes37c277.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes58c277.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.673548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No50c275.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.612,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c258.84$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.371,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No65c249.4$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes30c240.12$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.61233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+126.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes29c218.67$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8232132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes45c209.72$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes54c202.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.210163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c199.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes39c193.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7524238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c191.77$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.423,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes66c183.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7619060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c179.94$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.453,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No59c179.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7616968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c178.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.093,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes32c177.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2514659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No50c174.48$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No58c171.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.381165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c166.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes28c165.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4820025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes71c162.06$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No52c153.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.961,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed No72c149.1$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.865332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes33c145.72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6312223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes30c140$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed No65c139.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.497170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes33c138$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.813430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes51c136.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes44c130.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7211038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c121.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes32c121.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.292846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes47c118.43$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2516530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes47c116.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.361,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c112.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.739,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes32c110.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.275152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes28c107.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1417138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes33c106.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8720027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes30c100.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.432733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637536%27 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.931747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed Yes41c99.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…b978backed Yes43c98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.943023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No78c95.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.638758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes38c94.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.046431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda63…8969backed Yes30c94.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.219929.3%29 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes41c93.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.594533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No78c92.89$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5535854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c90$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes22c90$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.223743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes33c88.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.757425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No74c87.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes25c86.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes29c83.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7342049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c82.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.372,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c80.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.967,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No24c80.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes42c79.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.392,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes44c79.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3810633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes32c76.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0219338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked Yes25c73.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.084117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes23c73.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes27c73.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.812,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c67.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes25c63.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes46c62.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes34c60.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.328833%29 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c58.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.982,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No31c58.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed No51c57.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3302…489dbacked Yes31c57.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-85.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes33c56.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes26c56.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes31c55.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4325344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No78c54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9343859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c53.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c53.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.322,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.