TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Karmine Corp, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$320,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked Karmine Corp5c23,509$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.761,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed G2 Esports72c14,437$10,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,984.6291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Karmine Corp37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.9511643.1%50 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Karmine Corp32c9,630$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.7435431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9bf…59e9backed Karmine Corp9c8,163$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.23825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+357.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Karmine Corp3c6,526$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.391,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked G2 Esports68c6,300$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Karmine Corp24c5,709$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.8381143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Karmine Corp9c5,000$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.3215543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports68c4,176$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.961,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Karmine Corp32c4,085$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.513632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Karmine Corp32c3,848$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.3763546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed Karmine Corp38c3,505$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.94431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed G2 Esports62c3,394$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.631,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked G2 Esports72c3,096$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.8234651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed G2 Esports65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.0114346.9%67 W · 76 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Karmine Corp3c2,950$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.645618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Karmine Corp33c2,717$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.7847838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Karmine Corp26c2,661$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68417148%82 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Karmine Corp4c2,636$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked G2 Esports62c2,575$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.2321753.9%117 W · 100 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Karmine Corp34c2,510$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.2557947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Karmine Corp31c2,324$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.3111435.1%40 W · 74 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Karmine Corp25c2,056$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.412,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked G2 Esports69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Karmine Corp30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Karmine Corp34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68048844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Karmine Corp2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Karmine Corp17c1,980$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.297427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed G2 Esports70c1,893$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.831,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Karmine Corp34c1,829$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.3442941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked G2 Esports69c1,806$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.3323357.1%133 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed G2 Esports71c1,794$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.7760354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4dc…0227backed G2 Esports72c1,575$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.893767.6%25 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp30c1,526$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.931,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Karmine Corp20c1,452$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29047933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed G2 Esports71c1,431$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.811,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked G2 Esports69c1,400$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43446258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Karmine Corp31c1,398$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.3257246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked Karmine Corp35c1,379$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4874247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Karmine Corp32c1,341$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1246637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed G2 Esports70c1,332$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.61,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Karmine Corp35c1,317$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.9532844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed G2 Esports63c1,300$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48111547.8%55 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed G2 Esports71c1,256$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2259554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Karmine Corp28c1,247$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35056432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Karmine Corp28c1,214$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34027244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Karmine Corp28c1,200$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c50…89b6backed G2 Esports63c1,195$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.182263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked G2 Esports70c1,092$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5530357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Karmine Corp6c1,050$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ed…0f83backed Karmine Corp8c1,008$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.232213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports65c1,000$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.841,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Karmine Corp3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed G2 Esports63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Karmine Corp5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Karmine Corp29c944.4$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9851146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Karmine Corp12c914.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.181,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked G2 Esports66c888$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.9214352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked G2 Esports70c867$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.11,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked G2 Esports63c800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29614761.2%90 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Karmine Corp30c776$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0235054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Karmine Corp3c750$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked G2 Esports68c750$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24095847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked G2 Esports65c750$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.57157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Karmine Corp19c700$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13517635.8%63 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Karmine Corp31c686.4$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7830945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed G2 Esports69c668$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.081,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports63c634.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9296057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83dd…6095backed G2 Esports71c600.08$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.657758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Karmine Corp6c587.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6332053.8%172 W · 148 L+21.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked G2 Esports78c582.16$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.922,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked G2 Esports69c579.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7182650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Karmine Corp16c559.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871,44413.2%191 W · 1,253 L-110.0wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed G2 Esports63c555.16$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4185652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Karmine Corp29c534.61$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3469041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Karmine Corp8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed Karmine Corp29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14513854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…47fcbacked Karmine Corp36c500$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.55933.9%20 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Karmine Corp35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540546.2%187 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Karmine Corp20c487.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1186943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Karmine Corp9c481.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed G2 Esports70c467$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.157754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed G2 Esports79c449.99$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9334960.2%210 W · 139 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed G2 Esports66c448.48$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.488652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Karmine Corp26c436.81$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5790348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked G2 Esports66c393.94$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9451852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed G2 Esports63c363.03$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.886758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed G2 Esports72c361.46$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4633857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb74…3fabbacked G2 Esports74c338.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6119052.6%100 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Karmine Corp29c335.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2960347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Karmine Corp26c332.41$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.851,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Karmine Corp25c320$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.433237.7%125 W · 207 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed G2 Esports63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4674949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Karmine Corp19c315.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6049346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Karmine Corp3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108522.4%19 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed G2 Esports60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12024648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Karmine Corp34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc177…7fbbbacked Karmine Corp5c299.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516429.9%49 W · 115 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed G2 Esports62c299.46$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7966059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.