TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed No2c813.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.813,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes43c813.47$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.1581558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes40c376.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1664446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c335.23$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No16c305.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes44c292.37$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.912,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes34c282.95$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes63c260.91$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.995,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No45c255.08$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8153925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c200.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No52c194.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.281,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No22c189.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.971,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No10c188.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c179.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.713,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No39c160.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes44c159.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6924141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No59c155.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.271,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c137.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.646,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No48c125$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.542,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.41,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c117.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.019,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed No16c97.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.029769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes37c95.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3117251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c90.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes36c89.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c82.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No44c81.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.552,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes44c80.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes45c77.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.521,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes65c77.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1876936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x155d…a4f4backed Yes42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes78c64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1512350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No57c63.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.262,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c62.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No21c58.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c55.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.223,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf408…afe0backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Yes40c49.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.573551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes64c49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6634935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7861249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c48.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes74c46.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No28c44.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c44.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.332,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No61c44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.714,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No25c43.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.992,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No36c43.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No70c43.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No70c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.417247.7%82 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes42c41.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.364,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes30c40.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.780735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.241752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No31c38.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No74c37.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4672624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No67c36.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77281.9%59 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No53c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.212,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.245,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes35c35.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9114957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66d5…de1abacked Yes75c35.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No56c34.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.717342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No58c32.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.425675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c27.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No61c27.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7316935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c27.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.072,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No76c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.878976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed No60c24.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No60c24.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.842,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No66c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c23.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa13c…d9dbbacked No62c22.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.418247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16da…daa5backed No57c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187c…31afbacked No62c18.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No73c14.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.