Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe956493dc84091bc90054dcdc14609a5588a9cbbed837761b10cecdba1dbaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 0c | 5,022$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,482$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.91 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 1,103$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 864.74$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 411.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 367$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 332.85$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 330.27$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 199.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 190$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 185.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 182.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 22c | 179.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 54c | 135.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 129.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 59c | 124.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 115.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 104$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 98.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 92.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 85.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 82.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 80.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 80.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 61c | 80.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 52c | 74.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 71.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 70.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 77c | 64.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 61.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 60.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 60.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 49c | 51.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 51.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 50.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 50.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 45.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 44.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 44.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 39.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 38.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 78c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 52c | 22.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…c47cbacked Yes | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 21.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 21.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 55c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.