NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd5b03ccafa7a4fc1ef40c341ffdaa763e1b296b91180a90db2af43bbd820743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Raptors, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Nuggets | 59c | 4,623$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.77 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nuggets | 54c | 3,031$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.49 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 41c | 2,989$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 55c | 1,984$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 32c | 1,390$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nuggets | 57c | 1,001$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.94 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Nuggets | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Nuggets | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets | 55c | 999.02$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.56 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 41c | 982.56$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Raptors | 43c | 874.51$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.04 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Raptors | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 54c | 585$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Raptors | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 204 | 34.8%71 W · 133 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 42c | 500$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 38c | 489.47$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Nuggets | 62c | 489.47$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Raptors | 43c | 420.77$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Nuggets | 57c | 352.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Nuggets | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Raptors | 44c | 228.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Raptors | 44c | 202.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Nuggets | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 63c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Nuggets | 57c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Raptors | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 55c | 105.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Raptors | 45c | 88.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Nuggets | 59c | 85.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Raptors | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Nuggets | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Nuggets | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Nuggets | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Raptors | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Nuggets | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Raptors | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Raptors | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Raptors | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Nuggets | 55c | 30.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Nuggets | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Raptors | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Raptors | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Raptors | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…1505backed Nuggets | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 55c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Nuggets | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Raptors | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Raptors | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Nuggets | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Nuggets | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Nuggets | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Nuggets | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Nuggets | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Nuggets | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.