NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1386624ebac1db1bc64bf30aeff2bca1fb28cba337b9d814e562a2aa1a5cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 50c | 60,309$29,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,931.69 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,199.97 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 28,294$14,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,864.05 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 53c | 23,240$12,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,923 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…39c0backed Over | 48c | 20,773$9,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,970.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,599.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…9e5ebacked Over | 48c | 16,667$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 16,227$7,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,626.83 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 7,837$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 48c | 7,448$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.18 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Over | 48c | 7,085$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.6 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 48c | 6,711$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.41 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.99 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 5,800$3,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 5,784$2,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.06 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 48c | 4,925$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,549$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 49c | 3,816$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.37 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 3,648$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.61 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 48c | 1,473$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 48c | 1,385$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 49c | 1,380$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 51c | 1,142$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.3 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…b639backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 48c | 931.35$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.05 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 766$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 317.92$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 255.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Under | 50c | 232$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 197.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…bc95backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 132.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 35c | 116$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…8235backed Under | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Under | 49c | 95.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 78.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…3264backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 49c | 36.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 54c | 27.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Under | 51c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.