NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e645a48949748a832ad985229a46c62c4e47926d44eececc1e7a1e6bb4dbfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 7,624$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920.22 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 51c | 4,205$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.48 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 52c | 3,187$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.09 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,780$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 54c | 2,016$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.44 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,699$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.47 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 46c | 1,450$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.77 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 55c | 1,137$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.35 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 880.3$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 53c | 757.5$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.48 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 720$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 54c | 644.44$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 53c | 570.21$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.21 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 425$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.75 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 21c | 389$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 345$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 54c | 326.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 314$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 31c | 265.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 203.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 54c | 82.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 54c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.