NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b32bfa397250c3c1df8539899a2974b7c6a0657d0ce6495e1f3ac1bd2cf0e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Over | 52c | 9,680$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,985.52 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,271$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 1,815$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.99 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 1,179$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 55c | 661.45$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.68 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 646.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.84 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 44c | 545.45$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 48c | 340.22$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 56c | 330.36$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Under | 43c | 236$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 232.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 142.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 140.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 48c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 48c | 58.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Under | 51c | 47.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 44.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…480bbacked Under | 44c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 45c | 42.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…e03ebacked Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 44c | 29.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.