NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f26afee9eafb2b87450a65485d6409fe68ec0d49fd6f18c6d729c8f0971b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Over | 53c | 298,747$158,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158,324.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 47c | 200,000$94,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,000 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 47c | 89,859$42,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,625.23 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Over | 50c | 5,989$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.56 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 50c | 4,481$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.35 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,861$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 51c | 2,219$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.86 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 51c | 2,065$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.31 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 48c | 1,921$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.03 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 1,723$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.99 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Over | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 748$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 48c | 515$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.8 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 376.09$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 321.57$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 321.34$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 243.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 52c | 193.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 192.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Over | 52c | 192.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 49c | 191.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…8235backed Over | 50c | 90.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 62.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d6…2c01backed Under | 49c | 47.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…fc7abacked Under | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.