NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc2b07740a1709a5b173fd92539c73eb51269450e148be39ae4d3cf545aacb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Raptors, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $477,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $479,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Raptors | 49c | 272,774$132,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132,774.36 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 52c | 201,885$104,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,012.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Nuggets | 51c | 88,471$45,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,252.69 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Raptors | 47c | 63,000$29,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,610 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 19,000$9,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,310 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Nuggets | 52c | 10,292$5,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,945.94 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 51c | 9,980$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 52c | 9,378$4,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,509.6 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 51c | 8,173$4,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,972.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Nuggets | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Nuggets | 51c | 3,529$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.22 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Nuggets | 51c | 3,514$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.1 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets | 54c | 2,924$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.07 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 46c | 1,988$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.65 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Raptors | 50c | 1,206$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Nuggets | 52c | 1,037$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.39 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Nuggets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 52c | 698.08$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 45c | 665.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Nuggets | 51c | 399$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nuggets | 52c | 313$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Raptors | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Raptors | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…8235backed Raptors | 40c | 145.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Raptors | 49c | 135.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Nuggets | 52c | 135$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Raptors | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Nuggets | 54c | 123$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Nuggets | 54c | 107.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Raptors | 47c | 107.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 45c | 93.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc523…3606backed Raptors | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Nuggets | 55c | 91.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Nuggets | 52c | 87.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Nuggets | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Nuggets | 54c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Nuggets | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Raptors | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 52c | 51.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Raptors | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Raptors | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Raptors | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Raptors | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Raptors | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Raptors | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…a64dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Raptors | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Nuggets | 52c | 37.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Raptors | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Raptors | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Raptors | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Raptors | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Nuggets | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Raptors | 46c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…fc7abacked Nuggets | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Raptors | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Nuggets | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Nuggets | 51c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. RaptorsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.