NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs: Suns vs. Thunder Total Games O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce6cf9241a88eaad008c30a83848c54886fe6f42b0619c78e45f0b2dcfc50c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Over 4.5 | 46c | 2,291$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under 4.5 | 53c | 1,563$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.52 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Over 4.5 | 60c | 814.04$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Under 4.5 | 40c | 789.08$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.45 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under 4.5 | 41c | 769.72$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.13 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed Over 4.5 | 34c | 751.16$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…cc9fbacked Over 4.5 | 58c | 726.71$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over 4.5 | 8c | 624.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…06bdbacked Under 4.5 | 66c | 526.66$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 519.49$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.28 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Over 4.5 | 39c | 395.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 231 | 39.8%92 W · 139 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under 4.5 | 61c | 353$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…9e7cbacked Over 4.5 | 59c | 276.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…fa34backed Over 4.5 | 26c | 209.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Under 4.5 | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Over 4.5 | 33c | 190$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Over 4.5 | 45c | 140.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over 4.5 | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 410 | 38%156 W · 254 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 4.5 | 67c | 98.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…9d02backed Under 4.5 | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Under 4.5 | 55c | 88.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ed…a802backed Over 4.5 | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over 4.5 | 28c | 80.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Under 4.5 | 71c | 71.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked Under 4.5 | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Under 4.5 | 77c | 59.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over 4.5 | 37c | 57.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Under 4.5 | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over 4.5 | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…9d17backed Under 4.5 | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed Over 4.5 | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…c12fbacked Under 4.5 | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…a2e9backed Over 4.5 | 45c | 47.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Under 4.5 | 67c | 46.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over 4.5 | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…8b03backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 39.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Under 4.5 | 62c | 33.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…7ef9backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…61fbbacked Under 4.5 | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Under 4.5 | 65c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under 4.5 | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.