TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-Zero Tenacityof KOLESIE, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,568 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked KOLESIE62c15,481$9,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,537.475,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked KOLESIE35c13,333$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.813,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c12,779$4,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,98175652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c4,468$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.125,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity53c4,355$2,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.462,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ex-Zero Tenacity63c3,443$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.4478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed KOLESIE2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451080.9%1 W · 107 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc582…853cbacked KOLESIE2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked KOLESIE2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405211.5%6 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-Zero Tenacity67c1,925$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.2166851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed KOLESIE2c1,875$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed ex-Zero Tenacity28c1,795$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.221637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c1,527$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.4920249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed KOLESIE2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed KOLESIE53c1,204$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.474,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed KOLESIE54c1,127$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.0618356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5803…7a85backed KOLESIE62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef88…d62cbacked KOLESIE62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed KOLESIE62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-48.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c925.59$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.616245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c900$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5499642.7%41 W · 55 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed KOLESIE52c770.28$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.036,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed ex-Zero Tenacity28c714$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5142437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked KOLESIE58c650.74$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.862,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed KOLESIE5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity60c590$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.693,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed KOLESIE63c568.53$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed KOLESIE62c548.23$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.915743.9%69 W · 88 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed KOLESIE62c536.79$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.8188242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed KOLESIE62c530.4$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.772,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c530$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.642050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c529.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.595,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed ex-Zero Tenacity59c509.54$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5140141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed KOLESIE7c500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3341436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3155639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3153256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3152584%21 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+65.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked KOLESIE62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick48cpaid+135.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x242c…286dbacked KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3155944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked KOLESIE62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3109160.4%55 W · 36 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked KOLESIE62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3105056%28 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed ex-Zero Tenacity37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31528738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed KOLESIE7c500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3357935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…c069backed KOLESIE62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+67.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2131…7325backed KOLESIE63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked KOLESIE62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3106740.3%27 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed KOLESIE4c492.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7113324.8%33 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed KOLESIE52c489$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3612638.9%49 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed KOLESIE63c485.09$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.615538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked KOLESIE36c450.49$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3316355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed KOLESIE58c442.94$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.912751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed ex-Zero Tenacity37c400$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25249935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…9589backed KOLESIE59c392.43$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0329455.8%164 W · 130 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity69c391.38$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.263,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked KOLESIE64c378.95$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5321737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed ex-Zero Tenacity48c371.41$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6691743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed ex-Zero Tenacity36c344.64$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5748240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed KOLESIE59c310.09$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5738037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed ex-Zero Tenacity36c307.97$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.146243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7900…3393backed KOLESIE62c277.84$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.042556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed ex-Zero Tenacity37c270.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1816720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked KOLESIE56c269.98$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1911758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed KOLESIE61c265$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.651741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed ex-Zero Tenacity35c264.74$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.071,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba5…fc9bbacked KOLESIE70c264.26$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.391020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-Zero Tenacity72c264$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.452,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed KOLESIE39c255.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed ex-Zero Tenacity33c255$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.948635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed KOLESIE57c252$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.838645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed ex-Zero Tenacity56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity37c240.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5463541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ae…3e6cbacked KOLESIE8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167236.1%26 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed KOLESIE8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1629347.8%140 W · 153 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed KOLESIE8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1637339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed KOLESIE8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed KOLESIE64c200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12920750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed KOLESIE15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3064439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked ex-Zero Tenacity68c188$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9716648.2%80 W · 86 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked ex-Zero Tenacity36c187.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0491945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c180$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.82,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed KOLESIE58c178.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.931,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c61…db4bbacked KOLESIE58c172.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002065%13 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked KOLESIE60c166$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.241,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed KOLESIE58c153.14$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.31,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked KOLESIE55c150.3$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.158745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed KOLESIE36c140.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2932138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed KOLESIE63c136$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6874054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c135$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.71,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-Zero Tenacity59c133.04$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.192,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e5…4318backed KOLESIE74c124.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.851957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked KOLESIE61c123.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.044,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed KOLESIE62c120$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.445645.2%206 W · 250 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked KOLESIE59c118.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8610942.2%46 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed KOLESIE61c117.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9650056.6%283 W · 217 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c115$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6891648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed KOLESIE13c110.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95824.1%14 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.