NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf029b135fa96c97e6277c021d776516557d640b8954eecbb1dfd92adcf05733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 65c | 6,267$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.9 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 36c | 5,007$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.01 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 34c | 1,190$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 66c | 1,000$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 76c | 695.43$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 70c | 639.99$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 34c | 629.16$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 7c | 617.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 432$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…a73abacked Under | 28c | 367.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 30c | 365$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Under | 30c | 359.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 34c | 315$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 30c | 314.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 29c | 299.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 70c | 298.35$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 281.02$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 14c | 273$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 24c | 266$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 77c | 216.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Under | 36c | 141$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…08f9backed Under | 38c | 106.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 79.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Over | 71c | 59.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Over | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 80c | 53.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…bf73backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 29c | 35.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 70c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…958cbacked Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.