TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Nongshim RedForce, BBL Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Nongshim RedForce59c22,504$13,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,225.9628955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaa…2094backed BBL Esports38c20,384$7,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,657.781216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed BBL Esports26c17,993$4,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,647.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nongshim RedForce71c10,688$7,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.0440945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed BBL Esports16c10,109$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.426462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Nongshim RedForce74c8,430$6,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.8734356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0467…fb2ebacked BBL Esports43c7,821$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,362.98450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Nongshim RedForce57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72019860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed BBL Esports44c3,500$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52563955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed BBL Esports22c3,283$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.832245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Nongshim RedForce56c3,033$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.717948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Nongshim RedForce74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7803857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nongshim RedForce78c2,465$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.8556551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed BBL Esports43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed BBL Esports13c1,847$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3215147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed BBL Esports25c1,825$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.2622344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BBL Esports17c1,531$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.641,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BBL Esports35c1,496$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.0624250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Nongshim RedForce57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5125660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BBL Esports40c1,200$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4768640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Nongshim RedForce78c1,144$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0323463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Nongshim RedForce56c1,136$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.4911442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nongshim RedForce64c1,120$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.1432462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed BBL Esports23c1,062$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BBL Esports18c1,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Nongshim RedForce77c984$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.322166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Nongshim RedForce52c983$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.1153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BBL Esports42c973.47$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.8655152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Nongshim RedForce69c939.98$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.7856357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Nongshim RedForce69c917$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.4249255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BBL Esports32c792.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.91,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BBL Esports44c750$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33093148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BBL Esports22c740.24$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1850…8903backed Nongshim RedForce77c715.06$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.96580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nongshim RedForce67c543.65$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7894361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nongshim RedForce75c539.45$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2951749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed BBL Esports27c529.29$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Nongshim RedForce58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21024457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Nongshim RedForce73c493.52$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9393049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Nongshim RedForce59c437.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.575658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BBL Esports17c437.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.481,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed BBL Esports44c397.73$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17517853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed BBL Esports12c376$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7726932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BBL Esports37c368.59$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3841734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Nongshim RedForce72c358.3$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3216547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Nongshim RedForce57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.882343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed BBL Esports43c350$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.519655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BBL Esports23c349.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a9…4e21backed Nongshim RedForce57c347.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.854755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Nongshim RedForce56c321.43$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4313455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked BBL Esports14c319.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9296245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BBL Esports33c313$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2581134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked BBL Esports20c310$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9477744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0146…4d51backed BBL Esports41c310$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.11250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Nongshim RedForce57c308.88$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8225556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BBL Esports38c294.68$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.481,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked BBL Esports27c292$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1242140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2f7…43d5backed BBL Esports24c280.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed Nongshim RedForce78c279.24$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4312755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Nongshim RedForce78c260.26$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.262171.4%15 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BBL Esports33c256.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Nongshim RedForce75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.57448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd20…24dabacked BBL Esports20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505523.6%13 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed BBL Esports24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606426.6%17 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked BBL Esports26c234.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3631227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked BBL Esports44c233.26$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.929040%36 W · 54 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed BBL Esports43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006256.5%35 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1493…105ebacked BBL Esports43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+51.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ce…0f13backed BBL Esports20c230$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.34119.5%8 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed BBL Esports44c229.15$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8363447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae74…f528backed BBL Esports24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.49445.7%43 W · 51 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nongshim RedForce61c205$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8578562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked BBL Esports13c201.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3330835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc815…ecfabacked BBL Esports10c198.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016452.4%86 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed BBL Esports20c198.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403036.7%11 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked BBL Esports16c194.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1816420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed BBL Esports43c173.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7526447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Nongshim RedForce60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6710460.6%63 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked BBL Esports16c163.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8521136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed BBL Esports22c162.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.139838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked BBL Esports11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16317.5%11 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BBL Esports25c158.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Nongshim RedForce61c158.01$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0316963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Nongshim RedForce55c156.67$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.533348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ae…920bbacked BBL Esports44c154.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nongshim RedForce69c153.84$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0960154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd547…64c4backed BBL Esports25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Nongshim RedForce43c137.93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.623743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4317…ab7dbacked BBL Esports43c137.79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed Nongshim RedForce77c133.04$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed BBL Esports22c124$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5637545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked BBL Esports19c120.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1b…dcf3backed BBL Esports25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306352.4%33 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed BBL Esports41c118.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.654351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked BBL Esports43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012949.6%64 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1ecbbacked BBL Esports43c109.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.033540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed BBL Esports24c107.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8428541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed Nongshim RedForce57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2626354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9568…1d03backed BBL Esports24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked BBL Esports44c104$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7619551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.