Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd108360998bcb8a6673b5427baf434cc31a90642418fb2e10d9c30911b3397e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 1,002$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 474.84$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 61c | 459.94$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.06 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 390$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 317.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 278.57$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 276.52$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 246$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 205.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 200.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 192.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 174.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 45c | 158.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 153.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 45c | 142.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 49c | 137.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 48c | 126.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 124.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 39c | 114.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 109.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 46c | 108.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 103.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 94.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 92.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 87.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 76.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 76.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 75.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 70.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 52c | 68.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 38c | 66.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 65.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 48c | 60.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed No | 47c | 59.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 54c | 57.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 37c | 57.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 46c | 55.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 41c | 54.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 65c | 51.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 44c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 49.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 48.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 47.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 43c | 46.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 68c | 45.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 44.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 46c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 52c | 42.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 42.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 38.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 38.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 37.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 40c | 36.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 33.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 33.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 32c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 37c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8923…545bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 27.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 54c | 26.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 42c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.