Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de0e7c8b70498d3be2100067c45e56cf56bdbb4591288d684adaecc34552724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 1,586$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 848.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 586.69$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 582.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 77c | 560.94$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 50c | 457.64$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.55 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 368$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 67c | 367.61$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 345.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 338.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.23 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 313.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.96 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 289$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 284.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 258.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 32c | 238.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 232$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 225.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 221.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 46c | 217.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 208$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 207.28$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 200.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 184.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 10c | 177.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 170.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 170$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 20c | 164.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 161.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 157.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 33c | 153.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 142$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 37c | 135.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 132.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 129.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 108.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 103.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 100.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 98.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 47c | 97.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 29c | 92.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 91.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 89.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 66c | 82.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 78.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 76.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 41c | 75.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 70.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 68.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 66.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 63.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 59.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 26c | 56.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 48.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 44c | 44.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 45c | 43.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 42.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 27c | 41.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 41.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 40.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 50c | 36.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 79c | 31.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 30.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 79c | 29.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 47c | 29.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 29.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 26.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 25.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 46c | 23.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed No | 57c | 22.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 56c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 58c | 20.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 15.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.