Dota2 · resolved market
Aurora to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1cf9a2f6ca8bf79edfe28865f25484b4fbbbb8c212e8b1eb393814265b50a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 63c | 1,575$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.1 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 36c | 1,524$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.93 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 32c | 868.85$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 20c | 828.05$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 31c | 820.39$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 626.17$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Yes | 63c | 555.56$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…dfdfbacked Yes | 64c | 507.81$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 36c | 507.81$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 30c | 414.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 63c | 333$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…9d25backed No | 38c | 306.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 78c | 254.05$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 72c | 233.44$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed No | 39c | 151.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Yes | 70c | 137.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 29c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 32c | 90.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 62c | 81.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 70c | 80.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Yes | 68c | 71.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 32c | 63.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 67c | 62.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 65c | 55.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 66c | 43.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed No | 36c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 69c | 30.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 63c | 29.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aurora to win 2-0?this page
- L1ga Team to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.