Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25ef23ebccc0ab6d15724d1002d422dcf43e3439ccc33f4b61a1be3a0d219ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,209$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 311.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 268.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 263.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 260.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 39c | 258.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 234$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 224.81$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 214$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 191.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 187.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 186$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 172.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 13c | 141$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 133$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 122.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 110.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 38c | 109.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 103.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 17c | 102.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 17c | 72.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 40c | 66.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 66c | 63.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 56.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 46.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 35c | 45.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 44.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 41.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 71c | 39.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 37.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 35.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 37c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 72c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 63c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 23.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 66c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.