Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e0e13677a2ede96dd15747fe897abff9d632fac864f8cc4cbcf8cb7e9ec34b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 25c | 889.49$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.88 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 468.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 338.57$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 31c | 318.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 24c | 252.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 228.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 211.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 200.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 173$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 38c | 153.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 152$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 137.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 132.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 127.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 123.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 66c | 121.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 115.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 105.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 105.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 59c | 99.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 67c | 86.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 72c | 82.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 82.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 80.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 77c | 78.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 26c | 78.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 75.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 72.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 63c | 69.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 68.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 44c | 68.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 74c | 61.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 76c | 52.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 30c | 51.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 47.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 51c | 45.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 61c | 42.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 41.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 79c | 40.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 37.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 37.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 31.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 25.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…cbb0backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 52c | 23.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 70c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Yes | 73c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.