Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f470737ae7e79ef0f84498eaf828c6f70867842e1f69c2e6448fe9e971f061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Aurora, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 52c | 38,456$20,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,356.26 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 47c | 18,990$8,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,925.44 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…366dbacked Aurora | 6c | 15,661$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 47c | 14,160$6,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,605.4 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora | 35c | 14,092$4,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,937.47 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Aurora | 0c | 11,490$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 48c | 11,111$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,333.28 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Team Spirit | 52c | 8,734$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.34 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit | 53c | 7,184$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,393.03 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 51c | 6,750$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.42 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.99 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Aurora | 47c | 6,461$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 15c | 6,060$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.3 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 4,963$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.23 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 4,313$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.84 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 3,747$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.45 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Team Spirit | 52c | 3,677$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.05 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora | 48c | 3,413$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.47 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit | 64c | 3,061$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.17 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Aurora | 49c | 2,908$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.92 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit | 53c | 2,685$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.84 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 2,566$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.81 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 2,566$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.81 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit | 61c | 2,467$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.08 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit | 53c | 1,982$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.55 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.93 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 1,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…8060backed Aurora | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Team Spirit | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.99 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit | 57c | 1,449$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.93 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Aurora | 49c | 1,434$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.49 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…dd89backed Aurora | 24c | 1,430$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.09 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Aurora | 48c | 1,281$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.92 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Spirit | 50c | 1,090$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.2 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Spirit | 59c | 1,078$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.22 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Team Spirit | 51c | 1,066$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.54 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.47 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Team Spirit | 53c | 1,026$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.33 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Team Spirit | 69c | 1,009$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.64 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Team Spirit | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 49c | 999.96$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.98 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 991.06$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.62 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…7428backed Aurora | 5c | 984.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit | 53c | 945.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.71 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora | 7c | 900$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit | 56c | 889.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.71 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 26c | 889$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.34 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 48c | 873.91$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.11 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 51c | 799.18$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.56 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit | 75c | 774.61$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit | 70c | 761.19$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.36 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit | 76c | 705.36$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 75c | 679.55$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 35c | 660.61$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Team Spirit | 53c | 613.89$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Aurora | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit | 61c | 599.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora | 50c | 586.1$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.91 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora | 7c | 549.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Team Spirit | 53c | 544$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…68d8backed Team Spirit | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Spirit | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Spirit | 62c | 500$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Team Spirit | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora | 50c | 495$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit | 54c | 493$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.69 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit | 68c | 450$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Aurora | 19c | 450$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Team Spirit | 53c | 449.06$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.06 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Team Spirit | 54c | 444.38$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…cce4backed Aurora | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 399.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora | 50c | 398.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora | 45c | 346.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.92 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…9d1ebacked Aurora | 44c | 342.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Team Spirit | 78c | 321.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked Aurora | 35c | 320$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 268 | 48.9%131 W · 137 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…fa1cbacked Aurora | 7c | 313.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora | 49c | 307.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Aurora | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb0…cfdabacked Aurora | 45c | 300$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Aurora | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…bfffbacked Aurora | 45c | 299.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 48c | 297.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit | 49c | 295.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Spirit | 75c | 284$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Aurora | 48c | 280$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 25c | 259.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Team Spirit | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Aurora | 15c | 248.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Aurora | 12c | 246.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…1f1bbacked Aurora | 6c | 234$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 212$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.