TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Aurora, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit52c38,456$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,356.261,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora47c18,990$8,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,925.4428159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3936…366dbacked Aurora6c15,661$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora47c14,160$6,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,605.469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora35c14,092$4,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,937.4747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora0c11,490$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4993546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora48c11,111$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2841056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Spirit52c8,734$4,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,190.3439343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit53c7,184$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,393.031,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora51c6,750$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.4280256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora49c6,500$3,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.9996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora47c6,461$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.822848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora15c6,060$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit65c4,963$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.2389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit78c4,313$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.841,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Aurora47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88022647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit53c3,747$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.4589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Spirit52c3,677$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.0512557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora48c3,413$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.4725248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit64c3,061$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.1768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Aurora49c2,908$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.9241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.6243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit53c2,685$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.841,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Spirit53c2,566$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.8113854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Spirit53c2,566$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.816842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit61c2,467$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.0835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit53c1,982$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.551,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora47c1,702$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.931,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit78c1,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Aurora12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803514.3%5 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Spirit51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.9925935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit57c1,449$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.9322461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Aurora49c1,434$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4910546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed Aurora24c1,430$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.097736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Aurora48c1,281$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Spirit50c1,090$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.229240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Spirit59c1,078$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.2260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Team Spirit51c1,066$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5415549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora46c1,031$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.4741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Team Spirit53c1,026$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.334652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team Spirit69c1,009$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.6437549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Spirit53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47052046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora49c999.96$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9849455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit56c991.06$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde5c…7428backed Aurora5c984.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.885630.4%17 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit53c945.71$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.716354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora7c900$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Spirit56c889.71$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.7161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Aurora26c889$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.341,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora48c873.91$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.1117146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Aurora51c799.18$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.5661456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit75c774.61$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.221,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit70c761.19$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.361,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit76c705.36$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.391,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit75c679.55$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.472,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Aurora35c660.61$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.381,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Spirit53c613.89$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.037342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Aurora50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit61c599.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.271,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora50c586.1$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9130357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora7c549.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.28622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Spirit53c544$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.6850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Team Spirit77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.487255.6%40 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Spirit77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11520145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Spirit62c500$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6974549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Team Spirit51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.996150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora49c499.98$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.991,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora50c495$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24765863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit54c493$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.6956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit68c450$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.931,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Aurora19c450$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.521043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Team Spirit53c449.06$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0619458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Spirit54c444.38$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9738855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f2…cce4backed Aurora4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Spirit54c399.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18223555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora50c398.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora45c346.49$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9256243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee3…9d1ebacked Aurora44c342.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Team Spirit78c321.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.793158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Aurora35c320$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.226848.9%131 W · 137 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9f…fa1cbacked Aurora7c313.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.793053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora49c307.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Aurora49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb0…cfdabacked Aurora45c300$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Aurora30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9035737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…bfffbacked Aurora45c299.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora48c297.06$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0634154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit49c295.37$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1860349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Spirit75c284$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7130041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Aurora48c280$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.429546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora25c259.66$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Spirit50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ee3…7c36backed Aurora15c248.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3424131.5%76 W · 165 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Aurora12c246.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x525d…1f1bbacked Aurora6c234$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Spirit67c212$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.121,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.