TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tommy Paulof Tommy Paul, Ugo Humbert
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$335,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Ugo Humbert11c39,265$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,470.69,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Ugo Humbert6c23,725$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.65175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Ugo Humbert32c10,967$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.715048%24 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ugo Humbert27c9,441$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.824,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbdb0…f8babacked Tommy Paul77c6,220$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.519259.8%55 W · 37 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ugo Humbert16c6,061$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.398,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Tommy Paul54c5,312$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.552254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Ugo Humbert12c4,833$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.5747728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Ugo Humbert29c4,552$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.117742.9%33 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Tommy Paul63c3,677$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.821,27756.6%723 W · 554 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Ugo Humbert48c3,450$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.8445036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ugo Humbert9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2709,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Ugo Humbert18c2,821$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50087837.2%327 W · 551 L-2.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Ugo Humbert6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Tommy Paul67c1,651$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3245737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Tommy Paul74c1,650$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.575,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked Tommy Paul76c1,572$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.541275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Tommy Paul65c1,540$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9294968.1%646 W · 303 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Tommy Paul48c1,515$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.5726065%169 W · 91 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Ugo Humbert34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101,43728.5%409 W · 1,028 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ugo Humbert42c1,488$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.195,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tommy Paul73c1,402$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.0711,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Tommy Paul67c1,303$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.483,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Ugo Humbert37c999.97$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.991,51537.7%571 W · 944 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7932…5b38backed Ugo Humbert55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50036157.1%206 W · 155 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Tommy Paul65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28019146.6%89 W · 102 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…8893backed Ugo Humbert4c785.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Ugo Humbert39c769.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008041.3%33 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4692…0feebacked Tommy Paul70c742$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.615951.6%82 W · 77 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Tommy Paul77c738.69$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.23,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Ugo Humbert33c733.36$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.246,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Tommy Paul56c726.36$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.4849847.2%235 W · 263 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc751…957cbacked Tommy Paul48c692.1$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.22025%5 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Tommy Paul67c684.6$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9226847.8%128 W · 140 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ugo Humbert38c640.7$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.053,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ugo Humbert39c631.56$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3187251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e33…73e7backed Tommy Paul63c611.11$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1116437.2%61 W · 103 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Ugo Humbert38c599.98$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.237,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Ugo Humbert45c551.2$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.682,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Tommy Paul75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12564365.9%424 W · 219 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Tommy Paul64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18025446.5%118 W · 136 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Tommy Paul66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17023152.4%121 W · 110 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Ugo Humbert9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Tommy Paul55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2257748.1%37 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Tommy Paul62c483.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.882,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Ugo Humbert38c460.89$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.392,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tommy Paul77c451.37$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.932,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Tommy Paul53c444$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5738550.4%194 W · 191 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Ugo Humbert6c425.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5985742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Tommy Paul60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16021842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd264…e811backed Tommy Paul62c387.1$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.11010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-83.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Ugo Humbert6c372$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3256744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4bc…b19dbacked Tommy Paul55c364.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.988543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Ugo Humbert3c338.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.911,2078%96 W · 1,111 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Tommy Paul61c324.59$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5965942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Tommy Paul63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.461,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Ugo Humbert37c308.9$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2968935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa213…6907backed Ugo Humbert28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655f…c12abacked Ugo Humbert7c292.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Tommy Paul65c291.59$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4325556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878d…4f8dbacked Tommy Paul55c283.67$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Tommy Paul63c280$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.635360.9%215 W · 138 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Ugo Humbert18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a17…910dbacked Tommy Paul63c277.64$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.835255.8%29 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Ugo Humbert38c273.15$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9244452.5%233 W · 211 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Ugo Humbert37c270.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Ugo Humbert6c269.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.669429.8%207 W · 487 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Tommy Paul57c265.11$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.111,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Ugo Humbert38c264.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.741,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6534…240cbacked Ugo Humbert38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Tommy Paul79c250.75$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.541,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20c…2b5dbacked Tommy Paul63c239.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.025933.9%20 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8664…d7bdbacked Ugo Humbert6c232.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick39cpaid-82.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Tommy Paul45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2217646%81 W · 95 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Tommy Paul51c207.31$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.664,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Tommy Paul65c204.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6221257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Tommy Paul60c200.4$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.42,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Ugo Humbert34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.791,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Ugo Humbert46c190$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.42,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Ugo Humbert38c184.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.951,37138.3%525 W · 846 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c64…cb99backed Ugo Humbert38c176.32$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Tommy Paul63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.738269.5%57 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2b…2cd8backed Tommy Paul63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7324461.1%149 W · 95 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Ugo Humbert38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6043353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbff4…b609backed Tommy Paul63c157.84$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.414954.4%81 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Ugo Humbert37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.753,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Tommy Paul58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.811952.1%62 W · 57 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd91a…4eacbacked Tommy Paul61c139.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Ugo Humbert35c137.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…7b62backed Ugo Humbert35c135.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.764341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Tommy Paul63c134.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9240554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Ugo Humbert26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tommy Paul73c129.85$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.551,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0f…9f36backed Tommy Paul63c128.89$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.693271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Tommy Paul47c128.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5638951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Tommy Paul62c125$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.560055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Ugo Humbert39c124$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3645744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Tommy Paul74c122.36$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.966,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…afedbacked Ugo Humbert42c120.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ugo Humbert36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.