TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof MOUZ, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$405,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x041b…2d89backed MOUZ40c37,016$14,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,806.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports60c32,459$19,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,937.071,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed MOUZ47c22,805$10,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,648.4316058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ54c18,571$10,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,066.5640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports62c13,921$8,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,344.8296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ38c9,396$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,570.6526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports52c9,023$4,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,324.4389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Tundra Esports58c8,830$5,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.5110751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Tundra Esports68c8,722$5,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.413068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Tundra Esports62c7,881$4,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.6515951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ38c6,976$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.5152243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ40c6,554$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed MOUZ44c6,259$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.1451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports50c6,131$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.681,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports49c6,051$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.442,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked MOUZ50c5,788$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.616954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Tundra Esports52c5,533$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.8571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ44c4,623$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.9447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports61c4,331$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.1632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Tundra Esports62c3,000$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.9936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MOUZ50c2,742$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.5243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed MOUZ43c2,236$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.4847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed MOUZ39c2,200$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.4439042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked MOUZ36c2,035$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.4516541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports53c1,960$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.941,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Tundra Esports55c1,924$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.182268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed MOUZ53c1,834$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ43c1,816$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.943049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Tundra Esports55c1,769$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.0927143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ40c1,749$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.681,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Tundra Esports61c1,655$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.4117651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Tundra Esports65c1,625$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.2245061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Tundra Esports64c1,518$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.1354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ41c1,500$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.4958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e8…7b55backed MOUZ38c1,499$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.51450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ13c1,460$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ40c1,455$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.7167043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed MOUZ18c1,329$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Tundra Esports65c1,250$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.529850%49 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed MOUZ52c1,231$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.092634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Tundra Esports66c1,200$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked MOUZ12c1,099$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0239343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Tundra Esports54c1,071$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.4257449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ46c1,041$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.2560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked MOUZ7c1,011$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1111960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Tundra Esports61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39024251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MOUZ51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51021146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ44c996.1$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.191,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Tundra Esports65c978.99$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7918156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked MOUZ34c960.2$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.215244.7%68 W · 84 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked MOUZ40c955.1$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.996949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Tundra Esports48c873.96$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.3644645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tundra Esports50c842.16$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.2196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…30afbacked Tundra Esports61c839.97$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.591573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Tundra Esports57c816.37$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.3332652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked MOUZ46c806.89$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.155354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked Tundra Esports63c798.72$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.536873.5%50 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Tundra Esports64c795.36$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.66160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed MOUZ52c788.96$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0235758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked MOUZ44c779.12$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.813157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed MOUZ6c771.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1914832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ39c758.53$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.741,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed MOUZ39c741.08$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0218356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Tundra Esports58c735.45$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.7650749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports52c710.5$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.411,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ39c708.85$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2752,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports52c693.43$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.21,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ54c683.45$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.2792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ45c672.68$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports64c672.04$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Tundra Esports61c641.82$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.312045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked MOUZ49c612.85$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5320043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f73…1b52backed Tundra Esports61c607.85$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ17c600$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9963032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Tundra Esports63c592.02$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8317373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed MOUZ38c564.13$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ36c559.94$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Tundra Esports68c554.27$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0933867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff5e…9c6ebacked Tundra Esports50c549.33$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.127238.9%28 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed MOUZ36c537.83$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2946049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked MOUZ37c520.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.443571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa162…479dbacked MOUZ53c501.88$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2661752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed MOUZ15c499.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports43c499.97$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.4177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Tundra Esports67c480.29$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5730155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed MOUZ56c461.58$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.537955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked MOUZ35c459.41$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.59054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed MOUZ48c458.16$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed MOUZ42c420.83$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7519147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Tundra Esports61c416.26$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3411450.9%58 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MOUZ6c414.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8616725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Tundra Esports54c359.78$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.2529347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ32c353.54$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.322,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed MOUZ51c321.94$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Tundra Esports61c320.58$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.275952.5%31 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed MOUZ52c309.27$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8550053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ6c308.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked MOUZ36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10814058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.