TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hagen: Jerome Kym vs Max Houkes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jerome Kymof Jerome Kym, Max Houkes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed Max Houkes16c51,433$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00074439.8%296 W · 448 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Max Houkes12c17,545$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.228,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4f…0591backed Max Houkes21c13,109$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Max Houkes2c10,900$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.981,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Max Houkes34c9,999$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.6639243.4%170 W · 222 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Max Houkes16c5,363$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85042332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Jerome Kym79c5,218$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.663,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Jerome Kym80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50036640.7%149 W · 217 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Max Houkes15c2,365$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.468,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Max Houkes16c2,139$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.761,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Max Houkes34c2,047$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Max Houkes14c1,836$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0571725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5e…185ebacked Jerome Kym71c1,653$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.35666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Max Houkes34c1,499$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8143743.7%191 W · 246 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Jerome Kym68c1,462$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.4594068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Jerome Kym66c1,325$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.411,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jerome Kym77c1,298$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.238,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Jerome Kym66c1,136$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.361,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked Max Houkes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014418.1%26 W · 118 L-0.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Max Houkes16c1,045$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.121,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…cffdbacked Max Houkes16c1,007$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.922222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Jerome Kym67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33014043.6%61 W · 79 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Jerome Kym66c726.97$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.171,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Max Houkes15c613.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.044,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5818…5269backed Jerome Kym68c577.35$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.758933.7%30 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Max Houkes14c497.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.111,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jerome Kym65c458.38$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.432,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Jerome Kym80c450$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905754.4%31 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Jerome Kym65c435.07$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.93,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Jerome Kym78c431.4$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.913,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Max Houkes35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…794ebacked Max Houkes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Max Houkes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508810.2%9 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbe…7833backed Max Houkes21c383.18$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7415115.9%24 W · 127 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Max Houkes13c382.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Max Houkes15c362.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.072,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b96…cea8backed Max Houkes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505834.5%20 W · 38 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Jerome Kym67c307.55$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5591754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Max Houkes22c306.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5236621.6%79 W · 287 L+1.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Max Houkes14c291.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4058931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Max Houkes17c281.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.821,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8d…9c0bbacked Max Houkes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508251.2%42 W · 40 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Max Houkes37c246.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0363537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Max Houkes15c233.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3575312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Max Houkes34c232.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9816856%94 W · 74 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae1…a7b6backed Max Houkes16c218.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.948732.2%28 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed Max Houkes14c216.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.832941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Max Houkes14c204.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2595050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Max Houkes34c199.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9993557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Jerome Kym79c188.03$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1929149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Max Houkes15c185.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.942946.4%199 W · 230 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Max Houkes33c177.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.591,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Max Houkes20c175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524231%75 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…d9d4backed Max Houkes14c164.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2325020.8%52 W · 198 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Max Houkes13c163.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2844349%217 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Max Houkes14c148.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Max Houkes16c143.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2318731%58 W · 129 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked Max Houkes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010310.7%11 W · 92 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee4f…daa3backed Max Houkes19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520332.5%66 W · 137 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Max Houkes36c125.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.171,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Max Houkes22c116.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.724440.2%98 W · 146 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed Max Houkes13c115.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158616.3%14 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Jerome Kym80c100.16$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.166,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Max Houkes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Max Houkes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0598…3d83backed Max Houkes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013938.8%54 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Max Houkes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344527.2%121 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Jerome Kym66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Max Houkes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Max Houkes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3493945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f3…3b06backed Max Houkes17c99.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.99850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+139%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Jerome Kym67c97.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0124951.4%128 W · 121 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Jerome Kym64c93.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7539648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Jerome Kym65c89.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Max Houkes34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041440.3%167 W · 247 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Jerome Kym80c88.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.998549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Max Houkes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Jerome Kym79c78.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4670537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Jerome Kym67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6316467.7%111 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Max Houkes34c63.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.692237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0536…c50bbacked Max Houkes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012035.8%43 W · 77 L-9.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3711…2775backed Jerome Kym68c62.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.731650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424c…8580backed Max Houkes19c56.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.013053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Jerome Kym79c56.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6369047%324 W · 366 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Jerome Kym61c53.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2196755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Max Houkes35c53.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.671,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Jerome Kym80c53.07$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.614,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Max Houkes34c52.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6741045.1%185 W · 225 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Jerome Kym79c51.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7837547.2%177 W · 198 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Max Houkes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205244.2%23 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07b…6ee4backed Max Houkes22c50.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Jerome Kym65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.52,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Max Houkes34c46.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7940350.6%204 W · 199 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec17…0af9backed Max Houkes34c43.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.712839.1%50 W · 78 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b3…e104backed Max Houkes34c43.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.711837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Jerome Kym64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482159.4%488 W · 333 L+3.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Jerome Kym67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.269545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Jerome Kym76c39.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3238141.2%157 W · 224 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Jerome Kym63c38.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0368…9874backed Jerome Kym75c38.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.524557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.