Dota2 · resolved market
Team Liquid vs PlayTime: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68548aa4d4aa2d97a6cf4277635d5d89e62c6ce7be49a093e0a399bd0e54126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 53c | 4,209$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.16 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 2,337$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.95 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,308$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.61 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 2,206$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.15 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 1,973$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 43c | 1,890$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.5 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…8440backed Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 1,188$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes | 30c | 1,111$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 1,041$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.2 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Yes | 37c | 1,009$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.94 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 34c | 918.83$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.4 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 38c | 839.16$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.81 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 50c | 661.32$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.24 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.54 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 35c | 349.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 237.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…7596backed Yes | 57c | 159$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes | 61c | 155$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 50c | 121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 52c | 101.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 64c | 98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 66.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Yes | 28c | 37.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…8810backed No | 38c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Yes | 35c | 31.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e74…6bdfbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Liquid vs PlayTime: Draw (1-1)?this page
- PlayTime to win 2-0?No won
- Team Liquid to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.