Movies · resolved market
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 1.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a998ba1dc2728f71873d7f4e84b4de8c2af5e11bd3da38e4afae6275eddcff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f68…91edbacked Yes | 0c | 7,511$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,057$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…575cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,362$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 66c | 2,919$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.42 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 2c | 674.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 524.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes | 36c | 422.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 372.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 35c | 361.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 22c | 327.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 312.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 283.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 283.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 275.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 33c | 170$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 14c | 155$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 20c | 152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 126.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…f0c1backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 92.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 33c | 88.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 56c | 58.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 40.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 69c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…b79fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 1.5m?this page
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 1.5m and 2m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.